Nacional Potosí vs Guabirá preview
Nacional Potosí faces Guabirá with a 59% probability of winning, compared to Guabirá's 18%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.06 for Nacional Potosí and 1.08 for Guabirá. There's a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 59%.
However, recent form shows Nacional Potosí with mixed results, recording L-D-L-W-W-L, while Guabirá has struggled with D-L-W-L-D-L. This inconsistency could impact the outcome, making it possible for Guabirá to pull off an upset despite their lower probabilities.
Nacional Potosí vs Guabirá: model vs market
| Source | Nacional Potosí | Draw | Guabirá |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Nacional Potosí and Guabirá expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.14
- Attack rating (Nacional Potosí / Guabirá)
- 0.89 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Nacional Potosí / Guabirá)
- 0.92 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nacional Potosí vs Guabirá score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nacional Potosí goals. Columns: Guabirá goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nacional Potosí vs Guabirá goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nacional Potosí vs Guabirá
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nacional Potosí | 59% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Guabirá | 18% | 5.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.71 |
| No | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nacional Potosí or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Guabirá) | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nacional Potosí win by 2+ | 37% | 2.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nacional Potosí and Guabirá recent form
Nacional Potosí
2W 1D 3L
Guabirá
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nacional Potosí at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-1-4
- Win rate
- 55%
- Goals for / match
- 1.64
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 11
- They have won 8 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 21 matches.
Guabirá away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-7
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 0.91
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 11
- They have won 8 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nacional Potosí at home only, Guabirá away only.
Nacional Potosí vs Guabirá head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Nacional Potosí 1 · draws 0 · Guabirá 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Guabirá | 2-1 | Nacional Potosí | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-08-24 | Guabirá | 1-0 | Nacional Potosí | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-04-14 | Nacional Potosí | 3-0 | Guabirá | Bolivia Primera División |
Other Apertura - 23 fixtures
- Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Blooming 2026-10-24
- San Antonio Bulo Bulo v Real Potosí — match page 2026-10-24
- Independiente Petrolero vs ABB — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Always Ready vs Real Oruro 2026-10-25
- Aurora v Real Tomayapo — match page 2026-10-25
- Oriente Petrolero vs The Strongest — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Bolívar v Universitario de Vinto — match page 2026-10-27
Before and after this match
- Nacional Potosí, previous: Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar: odds and pick
- Guabirá, previous: Guabirá – Oriente Petrolero, 2026-10-18