Bolívar vs Universitario de Vinto preview
In the upcoming match between Bolívar and Universitario de Vinto, Bolívar has an 83% chance of winning, while Universitario de Vinto sits at just 5%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 3-0, occurring 11% of the time. With Bolívar's expected goals at 3.09 and Universitario de Vinto's at 0.71, there is a strong case for Over 2.5 goals at 73%.
However, the recent form shows Universitario de Vinto has won 3 of their last 6 matches, which could challenge Bolívar's dominance. Additionally, both teams to score sits at 49%, indicating a possibility that Universitario de Vinto may find the net. This match could hinge on whether Bolívar maintains their winning streak against a team that has shown some resilience.
Bolívar vs Universitario de Vinto: model vs market
| Source | Bolívar | Draw | Universitario de Vinto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.09 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Bolívar and Universitario de Vinto expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.80
- Attack rating (Bolívar / Universitario de Vinto)
- 1.32 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Bolívar / Universitario de Vinto)
- 0.69 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bolívar vs Universitario de Vinto score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bolívar goals. Columns: Universitario de Vinto goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bolívar vs Universitario de Vinto goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bolívar vs Universitario de Vinto
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolívar | 83% | 1.20 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.63 | |
| Universitario de Vinto | 5% | 20.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bolívar or draw) | 95% | 1.05 |
| 12 (either side) | 88% | 1.13 | |
| X2 (draw or Universitario de Vinto) | 17% | 6.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bolívar win by 2+ | 66% | 1.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Bolívar and Universitario de Vinto recent form
Bolívar
6W 0D 0L
Universitario de Vinto
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bolívar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-1-1
- Win rate
- 82%
- Goals for / match
- 3.09
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 11
- They have won 15 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 2.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
Universitario de Vinto away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-8
- Win rate
- 10%
- Goals for / match
- 0.90
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
- They have won 5 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 21 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Bolívar at home only, Universitario de Vinto away only.
Bolívar vs Universitario de Vinto head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Bolívar 1 · draws 1 · Universitario de Vinto 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Universitario de Vinto | 3-2 | Bolívar | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-11-03 | Bolívar | 3-0 | Universitario de Vinto | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-05-24 | Universitario de Vinto | 1-1 | Bolívar | Bolivia Primera División |
Other Apertura - 23 fixtures
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- San Antonio Bulo Bulo v Real Potosí — match page 2026-10-24
- Independiente Petrolero vs ABB — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Always Ready vs Real Oruro 2026-10-25
- Aurora v Real Tomayapo — match page 2026-10-25
- Oriente Petrolero vs The Strongest — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Nacional Potosí vs Guabirá 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Bolívar, previous: Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar: odds and pick
- Universitario de Vinto, previous: Universitario de Vinto – San Antonio Bulo Bulo, 2026-10-17