FK Sarajevo vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo preview
In the fixture between FK Sarajevo and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, the 1X2 probabilities show FK Sarajevo at 48%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 16%. FK Sarajevo's expected goals stand at 1.24, while Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's expected goals are lower at 0.71.
However, the match could see different outcomes. The chances for Over 2.5 goals are only 31%, and both teams to score is at 37%. Recent form shows FK Sarajevo with two draws and one win in their last five matches, while Zeljeznicar Sarajevo has two wins in the same period. This context may influence the final result.
FK Sarajevo vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo: model vs market
| Source | FK Sarajevo | Draw | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 32% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 47% | 32% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.71.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
FK Sarajevo and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.94
- Attack rating (FK Sarajevo / Zeljeznicar Sarajevo)
- 0.83 / 1.02
- Defence rating (FK Sarajevo / Zeljeznicar Sarajevo)
- 0.76 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FK Sarajevo vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FK Sarajevo goals. Columns: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FK Sarajevo vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FK Sarajevo vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Sarajevo | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 20% | 4.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.69 |
| No | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FK Sarajevo or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| X2 (draw or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Sarajevo win by 2+ | 22% | 4.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FK Sarajevo and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo recent form
FK Sarajevo
2W 2D 2L
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FK Sarajevo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.20
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: FK Sarajevo at home only, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away only.
FK Sarajevo vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FK Sarajevo 3 · draws 4 · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 2-0 | FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| 2026-05-25 | FK Sarajevo | 1-0 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| 2026-04-04 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 0-0 | FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| 2025-12-07 | FK Sarajevo | 4-0 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| 2025-09-27 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 2-0 | FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| 2025-04-27 | FK Sarajevo | 2-1 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| 2025-02-22 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 0-0 | FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| 2024-09-25 | FK Sarajevo | 1-1 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| 2024-04-14 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 0-0 | FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| 2024-03-03 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 3-0 | FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Zrinjski v Radnik Bijeljina — match page 2026-10-24
- Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Borac Banja Luka v Sloga Doboj — match page 2026-10-24
- Velež vs BSK Banja Luka — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- FK Sarajevo, previous: Radnik Bijeljina v FK Sarajevo analysis
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, previous: BSK Banja Luka v Zeljeznicar Sarajevo analysis