Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik preview
In the upcoming match between Siroki Brijeg and Čelik, the 1X2 probabilities show Siroki Brijeg at 48%, while Čelik stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 11% chance. Siroki Brijeg has an expected goals figure of 1.50 compared to Čelik's 0.97, indicating a stronger offensive performance.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Both teams to score is at 49%, suggesting a close contest. Recent form also reveals Siroki Brijeg has struggled with 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Čelik has shown some resilience with 2 wins in their last 5. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik: model vs market
| Source | Siroki Brijeg | Draw | Čelik |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 0.88.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Siroki Brijeg and Čelik expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Siroki Brijeg / Čelik)
- 1.05 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Siroki Brijeg / Čelik)
- 1.01 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Siroki Brijeg goals. Columns: Čelik goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Siroki Brijeg | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Čelik | 18% | 5.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Siroki Brijeg or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Čelik) | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Siroki Brijeg win by 2+ | 32% | 3.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Siroki Brijeg and Čelik recent form
Siroki Brijeg
1W 2D 3L
Čelik
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Siroki Brijeg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Čelik away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Siroki Brijeg at home only, Čelik away only.
Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Siroki Brijeg 1 · draws 0 · Čelik 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Čelik | 1-2 | Siroki Brijeg | Premijer Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Zrinjski v Radnik Bijeljina — match page 2026-10-24
- FK Sarajevo vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2026-10-24
- Borac Banja Luka v Sloga Doboj — match page 2026-10-24
- Velež vs BSK Banja Luka — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Siroki Brijeg, previous: Sloga Doboj – Siroki Brijeg, 2026-10-16
- Čelik, previous: Čelik vs Zrinjski: odds and pick