Velež vs BSK Banja Luka preview
In the match between Velež and BSK Banja Luka, the 1X2 probabilities show BSK Banja Luka at 37%, slightly ahead of Velež at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% chance. Velež's expected goals stand at 1.21, while BSK Banja Luka has 1.29, indicating a tight contest.
Both teams to score is at 52%, suggesting a decent chance for goals from both sides. However, Velež's recent form of D-L-W-L-D-L could impact their performance, as they have struggled to secure wins. BSK Banja Luka's recent form of D-L-D-D-W-L shows inconsistency as well, which could lead to an unexpected outcome.
Velež vs BSK Banja Luka: model vs market
| Source | Velež | Draw | BSK Banja Luka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 30% | 38% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 33% | 30% | 38% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Velež and BSK Banja Luka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (Velež / BSK Banja Luka)
- 0.65 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Velež / BSK Banja Luka)
- 1.25 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Velež vs BSK Banja Luka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Velež goals. Columns: BSK Banja Luka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Velež vs BSK Banja Luka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Velež vs BSK Banja Luka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Velež | 33% | 3.05 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.39 | |
| BSK Banja Luka | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Velež or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or BSK Banja Luka) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | BSK Banja Luka win by 2+ | 18% | 5.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Velež and BSK Banja Luka recent form
Velež
1W 2D 3L
BSK Banja Luka
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Velež at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
BSK Banja Luka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Velež at home only, BSK Banja Luka away only.
Velež vs BSK Banja Luka head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Velež 0 · draws 0 · BSK Banja Luka 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | BSK Banja Luka | 2-0 | Velež | Premijer Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Zrinjski v Radnik Bijeljina — match page 2026-10-24
- Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- FK Sarajevo vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2026-10-24
- Borac Banja Luka v Sloga Doboj — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Velež, previous: Velež vs Borac Banja Luka prediction
- BSK Banja Luka, previous: BSK Banja Luka v Zeljeznicar Sarajevo analysis