FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04 preview
In the Bundesliga fixture between FC Cologne and FC Schalke 04, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Cologne at 45%, a draw at 26%, and FC Schalke 04 at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score has a 57% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 50%.
FC Cologne's expected goals are 1.60, compared to FC Schalke 04's 1.23. Recent form indicates FC Cologne has won 2 of their last 5 matches, while FC Schalke 04 has only won once in their last 5. A potential factor that could affect the outcome is the inconsistency in form for both teams, which may lead to unexpected results.
Why this pick: FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (FC Cologne 10, FC Schalke 04 6). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04: model vs market
| Source | FC Cologne | Draw | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 31% | 30% |
| Market | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Published | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Cologne, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne | 2.20 | 2.05 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.64 | 3.80 | +0.17 |
| FC Schalke 04 | 3.08 | 3.27 | +0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Cologne and FC Schalke 04 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (FC Cologne / FC Schalke 04)
- 1.12 / 0.82
- Defence rating (FC Cologne / FC Schalke 04)
- 1.03 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Cologne goals. Columns: FC Schalke 04 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cologne | 45% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| FC Schalke 04 | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.77 |
| No | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Cologne or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Schalke 04) | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cologne win by 2+ | 20% | 4.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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FC Cologne and FC Schalke 04 recent form
FC Cologne
2W 1D 3L
FC Schalke 04
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Cologne at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Schalke 04 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Cologne at home only, FC Schalke 04 away only.
Injuries & availability
FC Cologne absences
-
E. Skhiri
ankle injury
- R. Ache thigh injury
- R. van den Berg muscle injury
-
T. Dallinga
knee injury
-
T. Hubers
knee injury
FC Schalke 04 absences
-
D. Ljubicic
knee injury
-
K. Karaman
muscle injury
- M. Sylla leg injury
- M. Wober muscle injury
-
R. Schallenberg
leg injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04 head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Cologne 6 · draws 4 · FC Schalke 04 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | FC Cologne | 1-0 | FC Schalke 04 | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2024-09-01 | FC Schalke 04 | 1-3 | FC Cologne | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2023-01-29 | FC Schalke 04 | 0-0 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2022-08-07 | FC Cologne | 3-1 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 2022-01-27 | FC Cologne | 2-2 | FC Schalke 04 | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-05-22 | FC Cologne | 1-0 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 2021-01-20 | FC Schalke 04 | 1-2 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2020-02-29 | FC Cologne | 3-0 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 2019-10-05 | FC Schalke 04 | 1-1 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2018-10-31 | FC Cologne | 2-2 | FC Schalke 04 | DFB Pokal |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
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- SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-24
- Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page 2026-10-24
- Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Freiburg vs Bayern Munich — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- FC Cologne, previous: Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Cologne analysis
- FC Cologne, next: FC Cologne v Union Berlin analysis
- FC Schalke 04, previous: FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05: odds and pick
- FC Schalke 04, next: Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04: odds and pick