RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg preview
In the Bundesliga match between RasenBallsport Leipzig and SV Elversberg, the 1X2 probabilities show RasenBallsport Leipzig at 64%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 8%. The expected goals are 2.47 for RasenBallsport Leipzig and 1.77 for SV Elversberg, indicating a strong attacking performance from the home side.
Both teams to score stands at 75%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 76%, suggesting a high-scoring game is likely. However, if SV Elversberg's recent form, which includes two wins in their last three matches, continues to improve, it could challenge Leipzig's dominance and affect the expected outcomes.
Why this pick: RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (RasenBallsport Leipzig 10, SV Elversberg 6). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg: model vs market
| Source | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Draw | SV Elversberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 22% | 46% |
| Market | 66% | 19% | 16% |
| Published | 57% | 19% | 23% |
| Edge | -9% | +1% | +8% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.48, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on RasenBallsport Leipzig, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig | 1.30 | 1.44 | +0.14 |
| Draw | 5.80 | 5.10 | -0.70 |
| SV Elversberg | 8.25 | 6.05 | -2.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and SV Elversberg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.52
- Attack rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / SV Elversberg)
- 1.19 / 1.26
- Defence rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / SV Elversberg)
- 1.28 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals. Columns: SV Elversberg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 79%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 57% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.15 | |
| SV Elversberg | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 5.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79% | 1.27 |
| No | 21% | 4.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or SV Elversberg) | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | RasenBallsport Leipzig win by 2+ | 17% | 5.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and SV Elversberg recent form
RasenBallsport Leipzig
3W 0D 3L
SV Elversberg
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
RasenBallsport Leipzig at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 4.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
SV Elversberg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: RasenBallsport Leipzig at home only, SV Elversberg away only.
Injuries & availability
RasenBallsport Leipzig absences
-
A. Ouedraogo
shoulder injury
-
M. Guiu
hamstring injury
SV Elversberg absences
- C. Campbell ankle injury
-
F. Onyeka
foot injury
-
L. Seifert
ankle injury
- N. Darvich injury
-
T. Zimmerschied
ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: RasenBallsport Leipzig 1 · draws 0 · SV Elversberg 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-02 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2-0 | SV Elversberg | 3. Liga |
| 2013-09-07 | SV Elversberg | 1-0 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 3. Liga |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
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- Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page 2026-10-24
- Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Freiburg vs Bayern Munich — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- RasenBallsport Leipzig, previous: Real Madrid vs RasenBallsport Leipzig prediction
- RasenBallsport Leipzig, next: Rot-Weiß Essen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig prediction
- SV Elversberg, previous: SV Elversberg v Augsburg analysis
- SV Elversberg, next: SV Elversberg v Darmstadt analysis