Freiburg vs Bayern Munich preview
In the Bundesliga fixture between Freiburg and Bayern Munich, the 1X2 probabilities show Bayern Munich at 65%, while Freiburg sits at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance according to our model. With expected goals of 1.92 for Freiburg and 2.50 for Bayern Munich, the match could see Over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams to score at 77%.
Freiburg's recent form includes 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Bayern Munich has 4 wins in the same period. Despite Bayern's strong head-to-head record of 5 wins and 1 draw in the last 6 encounters, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Factors like Freiburg's home advantage or unexpected performances could affect the outcome.
Why this pick: Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Freiburg 10, Bayern Munich 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich: model vs market
| Source | Freiburg | Draw | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 21% | 54% |
| Market | 14% | 17% | 69% |
| Published | 17% | 18% | 65% |
| Edge | +3% | +1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 1.92.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bayern Munich, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 8.00 | 6.65 | -1.35 |
| Draw | 6.00 | 5.72 | -0.28 |
| Bayern Munich | 1.30 | 1.37 | +0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Freiburg and Bayern Munich expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.42
- Attack rating (Freiburg / Bayern Munich)
- 1.31 / 1.81
- Defence rating (Freiburg / Bayern Munich)
- 0.95 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Freiburg goals. Columns: Bayern Munich goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 17% | 5.91 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.64 | |
| Bayern Munich | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.30 |
| No | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Freiburg or draw) | 35% | 2.89 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Bayern Munich) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayern Munich win by 2+ | 35% | 2.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Freiburg and Bayern Munich recent form
Freiburg
3W 1D 2L
Bayern Munich
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Freiburg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bayern Munich away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Freiburg at home only, Bayern Munich away only.
Injuries & availability
Freiburg absences
-
Y. Engelhardt
injury
Bayern Munich absences
-
J. Kimmich
personal reasons
-
J. Musiala
muscle injury
- Kim Min-Jae knee injury
- L. Diaz muscle injury
-
T. Buchmann
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Freiburg 0 · draws 1 · Bayern Munich 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Freiburg | 2-3 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2025-11-22 | Bayern Munich | 6-2 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-01-25 | Freiburg | 1-2 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2024-09-01 | Bayern Munich | 2-0 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-03-01 | Freiburg | 2-2 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2023-10-08 | Bayern Munich | 3-0 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
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- Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen 2026-10-24
- Augsburg vs Union Berlin 2026-10-24
- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-24
- FC Cologne v FC Schalke 04 — match page 2026-10-24
- Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page 2026-10-24
- Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Freiburg, previous: Monaco vs Freiburg prediction
- Freiburg, next: Freiburg vs Wolfsburg prediction
- Bayern Munich, previous: Bayern Munich – Arsenal, 2026-10-21
- Bayern Munich, next: Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Magdeburg: odds and pick