VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach preview
VfB Stuttgart faces Borussia M.Gladbach with a 65% chance of winning, while Gladbach has just a 17% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% probability. Stuttgart has shown strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Gladbach has lost 5 of their last 6.
The model predicts 80% for Over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score. Stuttgart's expected goals stand at 2.86, while Gladbach's is 1.73. If Stuttgart's form dips or Gladbach finds a way to improve their performance, these predictions could change.
Why this pick: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (VfB Stuttgart 10, Borussia M.Gladbach 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach: model vs market
| Source | VfB Stuttgart | Draw | Borussia M.Gladbach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| Market | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| Published | 66% | 18% | 16% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.83 vs 1.51.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.43, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach odds movement
Median bookmaker price on VfB Stuttgart, 22 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.40 | 1.38 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 5.20 | 5.55 | +0.35 |
| Borussia M.Gladbach | 6.70 | 6.80 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
VfB Stuttgart and Borussia M.Gladbach expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.34
- Attack rating (VfB Stuttgart / Borussia M.Gladbach)
- 1.25 / 1.00
- Defence rating (VfB Stuttgart / Borussia M.Gladbach)
- 1.04 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: VfB Stuttgart goals. Columns: Borussia M.Gladbach goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VfB Stuttgart | 66% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.53 | |
| Borussia M.Gladbach | 16% | 6.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (VfB Stuttgart or draw) | 84% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Borussia M.Gladbach) | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | VfB Stuttgart win by 2+ | 40% | 2.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
VfB Stuttgart and Borussia M.Gladbach recent form
VfB Stuttgart
2W 1D 3L
Borussia M.Gladbach
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
VfB Stuttgart at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Borussia M.Gladbach away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 3.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart at home only, Borussia M.Gladbach away only.
Injuries & availability
VfB Stuttgart absences
-
D. Zagadou
muscle injury
-
J. Diehl
muscle injury
-
J. Vagnoman
injury
-
T. Tomas
muscle injury
Borussia M.Gladbach absences
-
E. Leopold
knee injury
- F. Fleck muscle injury
-
F. Honorat
muscle injury
- I. Lidberg thigh injury
- J. Leszczynski knee injury
- K. Itakura ankle injury
-
N. Kuhn
muscle injury
-
T. Kleindienst
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 6 · draws 0 · Borussia M.Gladbach 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 0-3 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2025-08-30 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-0 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2025-02-01 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-2 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2024-09-14 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 1-3 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2024-05-18 | VfB Stuttgart | 4-0 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2024-01-14 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 3-1 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2023-04-29 | VfB Stuttgart | 2-1 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2022-11-04 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 3-1 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2022-03-05 | VfB Stuttgart | 3-2 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
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Before and after this match
- VfB Stuttgart, previous: VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid analysis
- VfB Stuttgart, next: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart prediction
- Borussia M.Gladbach, previous: Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim prediction
- Borussia M.Gladbach, next: Borussia M.Gladbach – Karlsruher SC, 2026-10-27