Deportivo Saprissa vs LD Alajuelense preview
In the Costa Rica Primera División, Deportivo Saprissa faces LD Alajuelense with 47% probability for a Saprissa win, compared to 28% for Alajuelense. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with expected goals of 1.75 for Saprissa and 1.32 for Alajuelense.
Both teams to score stands at 62%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 59%. Recent form shows Saprissa with a mixed record of L-L-W-L-W-L, while Alajuelense has W-W-D-D-W-L. A draw is also possible given the head-to-head history, with Saprissa winning 2, Alajuelense winning 4, and 4 matches ending in a draw. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Deportivo Saprissa vs LD Alajuelense: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Saprissa | Draw | LD Alajuelense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 47% | 26% | 28% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.32.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Deportivo Saprissa and LD Alajuelense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.07
- Attack rating (Deportivo Saprissa / LD Alajuelense)
- 1.34 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Deportivo Saprissa / LD Alajuelense)
- 0.92 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Saprissa vs LD Alajuelense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Saprissa goals. Columns: LD Alajuelense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Saprissa vs LD Alajuelense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Saprissa vs LD Alajuelense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Saprissa | 47% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | |
| LD Alajuelense | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Saprissa or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or LD Alajuelense) | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Saprissa win by 2+ | 26% | 3.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Saprissa and LD Alajuelense recent form
Deportivo Saprissa
2W 0D 4L
LD Alajuelense
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Saprissa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
LD Alajuelense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Saprissa at home only, LD Alajuelense away only.
Deportivo Saprissa vs LD Alajuelense head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Deportivo Saprissa 2 · draws 4 · LD Alajuelense 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | LD Alajuelense | 0-2 | Deportivo Saprissa | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-04-19 | LD Alajuelense | 1-1 | Deportivo Saprissa | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-02-22 | Deportivo Saprissa | 2-1 | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-12-21 | LD Alajuelense | 3-1 | Deportivo Saprissa | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-12-18 | Deportivo Saprissa | 2-2 | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-10-20 | LD Alajuelense | 2-0 | Deportivo Saprissa | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-08-31 | Deportivo Saprissa | 0-1 | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-05-22 | LD Alajuelense | 1-0 | Deportivo Saprissa | Primera División |
| 2025-05-18 | Deportivo Saprissa | 3-3 | LD Alajuelense | Primera División |
| 2025-04-22 | LD Alajuelense | 1-1 | Deportivo Saprissa | Primera División |
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
- Inter San Carlos v Escorpiones Belén — match page 2026-10-31
- Perez Zeledon v Puntarenas FC — match page 2026-10-31
- Sporting San Jose vs CS Herediano 2026-11-01
- CS Cartagines vs San Carlos — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Deportivo Saprissa, previous: San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa prediction
- LD Alajuelense, previous: LD Alajuelense vs Perez Zeledon: odds and pick