Escorpiones Belén vs LD Alajuelense preview
In the upcoming fixture between Escorpiones Belén and LD Alajuelense, the 1X2 probabilities show LD Alajuelense at 53%, compared to Escorpiones Belén at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.20 for Escorpiones Belén and 1.93 for LD Alajuelense.
While the model suggests a high chance for Over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 61%, factors like recent form could influence the outcome. Escorpiones Belén has lost 3 of their last 6 matches, while LD Alajuelense has won 3 of their last 6, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors.
Escorpiones Belén vs LD Alajuelense: model vs market
| Source | Escorpiones Belén | Draw | LD Alajuelense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 26% | 46% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 27% | 26% | 46% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.24.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Escorpiones Belén and LD Alajuelense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (Escorpiones Belén / LD Alajuelense)
- 1.06 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Escorpiones Belén / LD Alajuelense)
- 1.36 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Escorpiones Belén vs LD Alajuelense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Escorpiones Belén goals. Columns: LD Alajuelense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Escorpiones Belén vs LD Alajuelense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Escorpiones Belén vs LD Alajuelense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Escorpiones Belén | 27% | 3.67 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | |
| LD Alajuelense | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Escorpiones Belén or draw) | 54% | 1.87 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or LD Alajuelense) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | LD Alajuelense win by 2+ | 25% | 3.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Escorpiones Belén and LD Alajuelense recent form
Escorpiones Belén
3W 0D 3L
LD Alajuelense
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Escorpiones Belén at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-5
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
LD Alajuelense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-1
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 4 penalties (25%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Escorpiones Belén at home only, LD Alajuelense away only.
Escorpiones Belén vs LD Alajuelense head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Escorpiones Belén 0 · draws 0 · LD Alajuelense 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | LD Alajuelense | 2-1 | Escorpiones Belén | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2024-09-05 | LD Alajuelense | 5-1 | Escorpiones Belén | Copa Costa Rica |
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
- Sporting San Jose v Perez Zeledon — match page 2026-11-04
- Puntarenas FC vs San Carlos 2026-11-05
- Inter San Carlos vs CS Cartagines 2026-11-05
- CS Herediano vs Deportivo Saprissa — team news & stats 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- Escorpiones Belén, previous: Inter San Carlos v Escorpiones Belén analysis
- Escorpiones Belén, next: CS Cartagines v Escorpiones Belén analysis
- LD Alajuelense, previous: Deportivo Saprissa v LD Alajuelense analysis
- LD Alajuelense, next: LD Alajuelense vs Sporting San Jose: odds and pick