Puntarenas FC vs San Carlos preview
Puntarenas FC faces San Carlos with a 37% chance of winning compared to San Carlos's 33%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 9% probability. Puntarenas FC has an expected goals figure of 1.31, while San Carlos is at 1.22.
Both teams to score sits at 53%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, the recent form shows Puntarenas FC with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 6 matches, while San Carlos has 5 wins and 1 draw in the same period. This could influence the outcome, as San Carlos appears to be in stronger form.
Puntarenas FC vs San Carlos: model vs market
| Source | Puntarenas FC | Draw | San Carlos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 30% |
| Published | 42% | 28% | 29% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 1.12.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.28, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Puntarenas FC vs San Carlos odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Puntarenas FC, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puntarenas FC | 2.20 | 2.20 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.25 | +0.05 |
| San Carlos | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Puntarenas FC and San Carlos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Puntarenas FC / San Carlos)
- 1.04 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Puntarenas FC / San Carlos)
- 1.03 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Puntarenas FC vs San Carlos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Puntarenas FC goals. Columns: San Carlos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Puntarenas FC vs San Carlos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Puntarenas FC vs San Carlos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puntarenas FC | 42% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| San Carlos | 29% | 3.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Puntarenas FC or draw) | 71% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or San Carlos) | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Puntarenas FC win by 2+ | 24% | 4.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Puntarenas FC and San Carlos recent form
Puntarenas FC
3W 2D 1L
San Carlos
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Puntarenas FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Carlos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Puntarenas FC at home only, San Carlos away only.
Puntarenas FC vs San Carlos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Puntarenas FC 3 · draws 3 · San Carlos 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | San Carlos | 1-2 | Puntarenas FC | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-03-05 | Puntarenas FC | 0-0 | San Carlos | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-01-22 | San Carlos | 1-0 | Puntarenas FC | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-11-24 | San Carlos | 1-1 | Puntarenas FC | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-07-26 | Puntarenas FC | 1-2 | San Carlos | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-04-12 | Puntarenas FC | 1-0 | San Carlos | Primera División |
| 2025-02-16 | San Carlos | 0-1 | Puntarenas FC | Primera División |
| 2024-12-01 | Puntarenas FC | 0-1 | San Carlos | Primera División |
| 2024-09-16 | San Carlos | 2-1 | Puntarenas FC | Primera División |
| 2024-04-27 | Puntarenas FC | 2-2 | San Carlos | Primera División |
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Puntarenas FC, previous: Perez Zeledon vs Puntarenas FC: odds and pick
- Puntarenas FC, next: Deportivo Saprissa – Puntarenas FC, 2026-11-08
- San Carlos, previous: CS Cartagines vs San Carlos prediction
- San Carlos, next: San Carlos vs Perez Zeledon prediction