LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano preview
In the fixture between LD Alajuelense and CS Herediano, the 1X2 probabilities show LD Alajuelense at 65%, which suggests a strong chance of victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13% probability. LD Alajuelense has an expected goals figure of 2.00, while CS Herediano sits at 0.76, indicating a significant attacking advantage for the home side.
However, CS Herediano's recent form includes 6 matches with 1 win and 5 losses, which could lead to an unexpected performance. The stats for Over 2.5 goals stand at 52%, while both teams to score is at 47%. This suggests that while LD Alajuelense is favored, there is room for surprises in the match outcome.
LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano: model vs market
| Source | LD Alajuelense | Draw | CS Herediano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 22% | 12% |
| Market | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Published | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Edge | +18% | -6% | -11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices LD Alajuelense below the model: +17.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano odds movement
Median bookmaker price on LD Alajuelense, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| LD Alajuelense | 1.89 | 1.89 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.18 | 3.18 | +0.00 |
| CS Herediano | 3.80 | 3.80 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
LD Alajuelense and CS Herediano expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.76
- Attack rating (LD Alajuelense / CS Herediano)
- 1.34 / 0.70
- Defence rating (LD Alajuelense / CS Herediano)
- 0.99 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: LD Alajuelense goals. Columns: CS Herediano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | LD Alajuelense | 52% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 | |
| CS Herediano | 21% | 4.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.12 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (LD Alajuelense or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or CS Herediano) | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | LD Alajuelense win by 2+ | 41% | 2.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
LD Alajuelense and CS Herediano recent form
LD Alajuelense
2W 1D 3L
CS Herediano
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
LD Alajuelense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
CS Herediano away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: LD Alajuelense at home only, CS Herediano away only.
LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: LD Alajuelense 2 · draws 1 · CS Herediano 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | CS Herediano | 0-3 | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-03-22 | CS Herediano | 2-1 | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-02-08 | LD Alajuelense | 1-1 | CS Herediano | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-10-17 | CS Herediano | 1-3 | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-08-10 | LD Alajuelense | 0-1 | CS Herediano | Costa Rica Primera División |
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
- LD Alajuelense, previous: Puntarenas FC vs LD Alajuelense: odds and pick
- CS Herediano, previous: CS Herediano v San Carlos analysis