LD Alajuelense vs Perez Zeledon preview
In the fixture between LD Alajuelense and Perez Zeledon, LD Alajuelense has a strong 72% chance to win, while Perez Zeledon sits at just 10%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 12% probability. LD Alajuelense has an expected goals figure of 2.58, compared to Perez Zeledon's 0.77, indicating a significant attacking advantage.
However, the recent form shows LD Alajuelense with mixed results, including two losses in their last six matches, while Perez Zeledon has lost four of their last five. This inconsistency could impact the outcome. Additionally, both teams to score is at 50%, suggesting a possibility that Perez Zeledon could find the net despite their struggles.
LD Alajuelense vs Perez Zeledon: model vs market
| Source | LD Alajuelense | Draw | Perez Zeledon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75% | 16% | 8% |
| Market | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Published | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.30, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
LD Alajuelense vs Perez Zeledon odds movement
Median bookmaker price on LD Alajuelense, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| LD Alajuelense | 1.28 | 1.25 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 5.10 | 5.25 | +0.15 |
| Perez Zeledon | 8.12 | 9.00 | +0.88 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
LD Alajuelense and Perez Zeledon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.32
- Attack rating (LD Alajuelense / Perez Zeledon)
- 1.31 / 0.67
- Defence rating (LD Alajuelense / Perez Zeledon)
- 1.01 / 1.37
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
LD Alajuelense vs Perez Zeledon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: LD Alajuelense goals. Columns: Perez Zeledon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
LD Alajuelense vs Perez Zeledon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for LD Alajuelense vs Perez Zeledon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | LD Alajuelense | 73% | 1.37 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.85 | |
| Perez Zeledon | 10% | 10.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (LD Alajuelense or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| X2 (draw or Perez Zeledon) | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | LD Alajuelense win by 2+ | 54% | 1.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
LD Alajuelense and Perez Zeledon recent form
LD Alajuelense
2W 2D 2L
Perez Zeledon
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
LD Alajuelense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Perez Zeledon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: LD Alajuelense at home only, Perez Zeledon away only.
LD Alajuelense vs Perez Zeledon head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: LD Alajuelense 5 · draws 4 · Perez Zeledon 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Perez Zeledon | 1-1 | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-03-14 | LD Alajuelense | 3-0 | Perez Zeledon | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-01-18 | Perez Zeledon | 1-1 | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-10-26 | LD Alajuelense | 3-2 | Perez Zeledon | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-09-07 | Perez Zeledon | 2-1 | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-04-01 | Perez Zeledon | 1-2 | LD Alajuelense | Primera División |
| 2025-01-27 | LD Alajuelense | 0-0 | Perez Zeledon | Primera División |
| 2024-09-29 | Perez Zeledon | 2-2 | LD Alajuelense | Primera División |
| 2024-08-11 | LD Alajuelense | 2-1 | Perez Zeledon | Primera División |
| 2024-04-14 | Perez Zeledon | 0-1 | LD Alajuelense | Primera División |
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
- LD Alajuelense, previous: Inter San Carlos vs LD Alajuelense prediction
- Perez Zeledon, previous: Perez Zeledon vs CS Herediano prediction
- Perez Zeledon, next: Perez Zeledon vs Puntarenas FC: odds and pick