San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa preview
In the match between San Carlos and Deportivo Saprissa, the 1X2 probabilities indicate a 30% chance for San Carlos to win, a 31% chance for a draw, and a 40% chance for Deportivo Saprissa to take the victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an 11% probability.
San Carlos has an expected goals figure of 1.06, while Deportivo Saprissa has 1.27. Both teams to score stands at 48%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 41%. Recent form shows San Carlos with 4 wins and 2 losses in their last 6 matches, while Deportivo Saprissa has 3 wins and 3 losses. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate uncertainty.
San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa: model vs market
| Source | San Carlos | Draw | Deportivo Saprissa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 29% | 41% |
| Market | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| Published | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Saprissa, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Carlos | 3.80 | 3.67 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 3.22 | 3.30 | +0.08 |
| Deportivo Saprissa | 1.95 | 1.93 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
San Carlos and Deportivo Saprissa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.63
- Attack rating (San Carlos / Deportivo Saprissa)
- 1.04 / 1.42
- Defence rating (San Carlos / Deportivo Saprissa)
- 0.88 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: San Carlos goals. Columns: Deportivo Saprissa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Carlos | 26% | 3.79 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Deportivo Saprissa | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (San Carlos or draw) | 54% | 1.84 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Saprissa) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Saprissa win by 2+ | 20% | 5.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
San Carlos and Deportivo Saprissa recent form
San Carlos
4W 1D 1L
Deportivo Saprissa
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
San Carlos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Saprissa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: San Carlos at home only, Deportivo Saprissa away only.
San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: San Carlos 0 · draws 2 · Deportivo Saprissa 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Deportivo Saprissa | 2-1 | San Carlos | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-03-23 | San Carlos | 1-3 | Deportivo Saprissa | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-02-08 | Deportivo Saprissa | 2-1 | San Carlos | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-10-16 | San Carlos | 0-2 | Deportivo Saprissa | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-08-02 | Deportivo Saprissa | 2-0 | San Carlos | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-03-09 | Deportivo Saprissa | 3-0 | San Carlos | Primera División |
| 2025-01-12 | San Carlos | 0-1 | Deportivo Saprissa | Primera División |
| 2024-12-11 | Deportivo Saprissa | 2-0 | San Carlos | Primera División |
| 2024-12-07 | San Carlos | 2-2 | Deportivo Saprissa | Primera División |
| 2024-11-24 | San Carlos | 0-0 | Deportivo Saprissa | Primera División |
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
- San Carlos, previous: Sporting San Jose v San Carlos analysis
- Deportivo Saprissa, previous: CS Cartagines – Deportivo Saprissa, 2026-10-18