Updated

HNL · Matchday 11Postponed

Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka

· Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb

Alin prediction Dinamo Zagreb to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Dinamo ZagrebDrawHNK Rijeka

Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDinamo ZagrebDrawHNK Rijeka
Model53%23%24%
Market———
Published53%23%24%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.25.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Dinamo Zagreb and HNK Rijeka expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.29Dinamo Zagreb
1.25HNK Rijeka
Total expected goals
3.53
Attack rating (Dinamo Zagreb / HNK Rijeka)
1.44 / 1.10
Defence rating (Dinamo Zagreb / HNK Rijeka)
0.94 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.8% 2.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 1 5.8% 9.2% 5.2% 2.2% 0.9% 2 7.6% 9.5% 5.9% 2.5% 1.0% 3 5.8% 7.3% 4.5% 1.9% 0.8% 4+ 5.7% 7.1% 4.4% 1.8% 0.8%

Rows: Dinamo Zagreb goals. Columns: HNK Rijeka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 69%
Over 3.5 47%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Dinamo Zagreb53%1.89
Draw23%4.36
HNK Rijeka24%4.12
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.49
Under 2.533%3.03
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.51
No34%2.96
Double chance1X (Dinamo Zagreb or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or HNK Rijeka)47%2.12
Handicap -1Dinamo Zagreb win by 2+39%2.58
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Dinamo Zagreb and HNK Rijeka recent form

Dinamo Zagreb 3W 1D 2L
HNK Rijeka 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Dinamo Zagreb at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.60
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

HNK Rijeka away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.80
Goals against / match
1.60
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Dinamo Zagreb at home only, HNK Rijeka away only.

Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Dinamo Zagreb 2 · draws 2 · HNK Rijeka 0.

Dinamo ZagrebDrawsHNK Rijeka
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-18Dinamo Zagreb2-2HNK RijekaHNL
2026-02-08HNK Rijeka0-0Dinamo ZagrebHNL
2025-11-01Dinamo Zagreb2-1HNK RijekaHNL
2025-08-16HNK Rijeka0-2Dinamo ZagrebHNL

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match