HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb preview
HNK Gorica faces NK Lokomotiva Zagreb with a 37% chance of winning compared to 31% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 12% of the time in our model. HNK Gorica's expected goals stand at 1.11, slightly higher than NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's 1.00.
While both teams to score has a probability of 44%, the recent form shows HNK Gorica with 2 losses in their last 5 matches, and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb has lost 4 of their last 5. This inconsistent form could impact the outcome, making it possible for either team to secure a win despite the statistical leanings.
HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: model vs market
| Source | HNK Gorica | Draw | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 33% | 31% |
| Market | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Published | 39% | 30% | 32% |
| Edge | -3% | +4% | -1% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.41, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb odds movement
Median bookmaker price on HNK Gorica, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Gorica | 2.35 | 2.36 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.31 | 3.20 | -0.11 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 2.85 | 2.90 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
HNK Gorica and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.08
- Attack rating (HNK Gorica / NK Lokomotiva Zagreb)
- 0.67 / 0.84
- Defence rating (HNK Gorica / NK Lokomotiva Zagreb)
- 0.97 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: HNK Gorica goals. Columns: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Gorica | 39% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.35 | |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.32 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (HNK Gorica or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Gorica win by 2+ | 15% | 6.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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HNK Gorica and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb recent form
HNK Gorica
1W 3D 2L
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
HNK Gorica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: HNK Gorica at home only, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away only.
HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: HNK Gorica 2 · draws 0 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 3-1 | HNK Gorica | HNL |
| 2026-04-17 | HNK Gorica | 0-2 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL |
| 2026-02-06 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 3-0 | HNK Gorica | HNL |
| 2025-11-03 | HNK Gorica | 4-1 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL |
| 2025-08-16 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1-3 | HNK Gorica | HNL |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- NK Osijek vs Rudes 2026-10-24
- Dinamo Zagreb v HNK Rijeka — match page 2026-10-24
- Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- NK Varazdin v NK Slaven Belupo — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- HNK Gorica, previous: NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica prediction
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, previous: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb – Istra 1961, 2026-10-17