Updated

HNL · Matchday 11Postponed

Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split

· Stadion Aldo Drosina, Pula

Alin prediction Istra 1961 to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Istra 1961DrawHNK Hajduk Split

Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceIstra 1961DrawHNK Hajduk Split
Model38%26%37%
Market———
Published38%26%37%
Edge———

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Istra 1961 and HNK Hajduk Split expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.20Istra 1961
1.69HNK Hajduk Split
Total expected goals
2.90
Attack rating (Istra 1961 / HNK Hajduk Split)
1.02 / 1.38
Defence rating (Istra 1961 / HNK Hajduk Split)
1.01 / 0.76

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.6% 8.2% 7.9% 4.5% 2.8% 1 5.5% 12.4% 9.5% 5.4% 3.3% 2 4.0% 6.8% 5.7% 3.2% 2.0% 3 1.6% 2.7% 2.3% 1.3% 0.8% 4+ 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Istra 1961 goals. Columns: HNK Hajduk Split goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Istra 196138%2.66
Draw26%3.91
HNK Hajduk Split37%2.72
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.62
Under 2.538%2.61
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.55
No35%2.82
Double chance1X (Istra 1961 or draw)63%1.58
12 (either side)74%1.34
X2 (draw or HNK Hajduk Split)62%1.60
Handicap -1Istra 1961 win by 2+11%9.05
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Istra 1961 and HNK Hajduk Split recent form

Istra 1961 2W 2D 2L
HNK Hajduk Split 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Istra 1961 at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.60
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

HNK Hajduk Split away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Istra 1961 at home only, HNK Hajduk Split away only.

Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Istra 1961 1 · draws 1 · HNK Hajduk Split 3.

Istra 1961DrawsHNK Hajduk Split
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-09HNK Hajduk Split2-2Istra 1961HNL
2026-04-07Istra 19611-3HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
2026-01-25HNK Hajduk Split1-2Istra 1961HNL
2025-10-19Istra 19610-3HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
2025-08-03HNK Hajduk Split2-1Istra 1961HNL

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match