NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 preview
In the upcoming match between NK Slaven Belupo and Istra 1961, the 1X2 probabilities show Istra 1961 at 41% to win, compared to 34% for NK Slaven Belupo. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.56 for NK Slaven Belupo and 1.73 for Istra 1961.
Both teams to score stands at 66%, while Over 2.5 goals is predicted at 64%. However, recent form indicates NK Slaven Belupo has won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Istra 1961 has only won 2. This could affect the outcome if NK Slaven Belupo maintains their winning momentum.
NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961: model vs market
| Source | NK Slaven Belupo | Draw | Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
NK Slaven Belupo and Istra 1961 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.29
- Attack rating (NK Slaven Belupo / Istra 1961)
- 1.00 / 1.02
- Defence rating (NK Slaven Belupo / Istra 1961)
- 1.39 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NK Slaven Belupo goals. Columns: Istra 1961 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NK Slaven Belupo | 34% | 2.95 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Istra 1961 | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NK Slaven Belupo or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Istra 1961) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Istra 1961 win by 2+ | 22% | 4.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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NK Slaven Belupo and Istra 1961 recent form
NK Slaven Belupo
3W 1D 2L
Istra 1961
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NK Slaven Belupo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Istra 1961 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: NK Slaven Belupo at home only, Istra 1961 away only.
NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: NK Slaven Belupo 2 · draws 1 · Istra 1961 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Istra 1961 | 3-0 | NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
| 2026-05-04 | Istra 1961 | 3-1 | NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
| 2026-02-27 | NK Slaven Belupo | 1-0 | Istra 1961 | HNL |
| 2025-11-29 | Istra 1961 | 1-1 | NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
| 2025-09-12 | NK Slaven Belupo | 2-1 | Istra 1961 | HNL |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica 2026-10-31
- Rudes vs Dinamo Zagreb 2026-10-31
- HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v NK Osijek — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- NK Slaven Belupo, previous: NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo prediction
- Istra 1961, previous: Istra 1961 v HNK Hajduk Split analysis