HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo preview
In the match between HNK Gorica and NK Slaven Belupo, the 1X2 probabilities show HNK Gorica at 39%, NK Slaven Belupo at 34%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 9% chance. HNK Gorica has an expected goals figure of 1.19, while NK Slaven Belupo has 1.27, indicating a close contest.
Both teams to score stands at 51%, suggesting a decent chance for goals from both sides. However, HNK Gorica's recent form of L-D-D-L-W-D could hinder their performance, while NK Slaven Belupo's L-W-L-W-D-L form shows inconsistency. With a confidence grade of C, the outcome remains uncertain, and unexpected results are possible.
HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo: model vs market
| Source | HNK Gorica | Draw | NK Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Market | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Published | 38% | 28% | 33% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on HNK Gorica, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Gorica | 2.29 | 2.30 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.34 | -0.06 |
| NK Slaven Belupo | 2.85 | 2.88 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
HNK Gorica and NK Slaven Belupo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.46
- Attack rating (HNK Gorica / NK Slaven Belupo)
- 0.57 / 0.91
- Defence rating (HNK Gorica / NK Slaven Belupo)
- 1.15 / 1.37
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: HNK Gorica goals. Columns: NK Slaven Belupo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Gorica | 38% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| NK Slaven Belupo | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 |
| No | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (HNK Gorica or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or NK Slaven Belupo) | 62% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Gorica win by 2+ | 15% | 6.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
HNK Gorica and NK Slaven Belupo recent form
HNK Gorica
1W 3D 2L
NK Slaven Belupo
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
HNK Gorica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NK Slaven Belupo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: HNK Gorica at home only, NK Slaven Belupo away only.
HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: HNK Gorica 2 · draws 1 · NK Slaven Belupo 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | NK Slaven Belupo | 2-0 | HNK Gorica | HNL |
| 2026-05-10 | NK Slaven Belupo | 1-0 | HNK Gorica | HNL |
| 2026-03-07 | HNK Gorica | 2-2 | NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
| 2025-12-05 | NK Slaven Belupo | 2-1 | HNK Gorica | HNL |
| 2025-09-21 | HNK Gorica | 2-1 | NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
| 2025-05-18 | NK Slaven Belupo | 4-0 | HNK Gorica | HNL |
| 2025-03-14 | HNK Gorica | 0-3 | NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
| 2025-03-05 | NK Slaven Belupo | 3-1 | HNK Gorica | Cup |
| 2024-12-13 | NK Slaven Belupo | 2-1 | HNK Gorica | HNL |
| 2024-09-30 | HNK Gorica | 2-1 | NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes 2026-11-06
- Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- NK Osijek v HNK Hajduk Split — match page 2026-11-08
- NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- HNK Gorica, previous: HNK Hajduk Split v HNK Gorica analysis
- NK Slaven Belupo, previous: NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 prediction