NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb preview
In the match between NK Varazdin and Dinamo Zagreb, the 1X2 probabilities show Dinamo Zagreb at 50%, while NK Varazdin is at 25%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, which occurs at an 8% probability. This suggests a tight contest, but if NK Varazdin can convert their expected goals of 1.37, they may challenge the outcome.
Both teams to score stands at 53%, indicating a reasonable chance for both sides to find the net. However, Dinamo Zagreb's recent form, with 4 wins in their last 5 matches, could sway the match in their favor. The confidence grade is C, highlighting some uncertainty in the prediction.
NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb: model vs market
| Source | NK Varazdin | Draw | Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Market | 20% | 24% | 56% |
| Published | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Edge | +5% | +1% | -6% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dinamo Zagreb, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Varazdin | 4.40 | 4.50 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 3.88 | -0.06 |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 1.68 | 1.65 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
NK Varazdin and Dinamo Zagreb expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (NK Varazdin / Dinamo Zagreb)
- 0.88 / 1.22
- Defence rating (NK Varazdin / Dinamo Zagreb)
- 0.79 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NK Varazdin goals. Columns: Dinamo Zagreb goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NK Varazdin | 25% | 3.94 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NK Varazdin or draw) | 50% | 1.98 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Dinamo Zagreb) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dinamo Zagreb win by 2+ | 13% | 7.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
NK Varazdin and Dinamo Zagreb recent form
NK Varazdin
1W 3D 2L
Dinamo Zagreb
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NK Varazdin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Dinamo Zagreb away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: NK Varazdin at home only, Dinamo Zagreb away only.
NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: NK Varazdin 0 · draws 1 · Dinamo Zagreb 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3-1 | NK Varazdin | HNL |
| 2026-04-26 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2-1 | NK Varazdin | HNL |
| 2026-02-22 | NK Varazdin | 0-4 | Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
| 2025-11-22 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3-1 | NK Varazdin | HNL |
| 2025-08-30 | NK Varazdin | 2-2 | Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes 2026-11-06
- HNK Gorica v NK Slaven Belupo — match page 2026-11-07
- Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- NK Osijek v HNK Hajduk Split — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- NK Varazdin, previous: HNK Rijeka – NK Varazdin, 2026-11-01
- Dinamo Zagreb, previous: Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb: odds and pick
- Dinamo Zagreb, next: Dinamo Zagreb – Bayer Leverkusen, 2026-11-26