Updated

HNL · Matchday 13

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes

· Stadion Kranjčevićeva, Zagreb· Referee Ante Terzic

Alin prediction NK Lokomotiva Zagreb to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NK Lokomotiva ZagrebDrawRudes
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — NK Lokomotiva Zagreb is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb2.11 Draw3.69 Rudes3.42

Price as of

Expected return at 2.11: -5.3% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes preview

In the match between NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and Rudes, the 1X2 probabilities show NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 45%, while Rudes sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% chance. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb has an expected goals figure of 1.52, compared to Rudes at 1.22, indicating a slight edge in attacking potential.

However, recent form could complicate this prediction. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb has recorded two draws and three losses in their last six matches, while Rudes has won four of their last six games. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 56%, suggesting the possibility of goals from both sides, which could affect the outcome.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNK Lokomotiva ZagrebDrawRudes
Model43%28%29%
Market46%27%28%
Published45%27%28%
Edge-1%0%0%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes odds movement

Median bookmaker price on NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.75Now 2.01 +0.26
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1.752.01+0.26
Draw3.703.42-0.28
Rudes4.153.30-0.85

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and Rudes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.52NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.22Rudes
Total expected goals
2.73
Attack rating (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb / Rudes)
0.80 / 0.94
Defence rating (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb / Rudes)
1.07 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 6.7% 4.8% 2.0% 0.8% 1 8.6% 13.2% 7.3% 3.0% 1.2% 2 7.5% 9.1% 5.5% 2.2% 0.9% 3 3.8% 4.6% 2.8% 1.1% 0.5% 4+ 2.0% 2.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb goals. Columns: Rudes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2NK Lokomotiva Zagreb45%2.23
Draw27%3.71
Rudes28%3.55
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.94
Under 2.549%2.06
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.78
No44%2.28
Double chance1X (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw)72%1.39
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Rudes)55%1.81
Handicap -1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win by 2+22%4.55
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites
# Betting site Welcome offer Why it is here Visit
1 Mozzartbet 50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.
  • M-PESA Paybill 290059
  • Daily Jackpot
  • Live betting
 Get offer
2 Betwinner First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.
  • 1,000+ events every day
  • Live betting around the clock
  • 30+ markets on live events
 Get offer
3 22Bet 100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.
  • M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits
  • Live in-play betting
  • Android and iOS app
 Get offer
4 Melbet 200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.
  • 1,000+ events every day
  • 30+ markets on live events
  • 24/7 customer support
 Get offer

18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and Rudes recent form

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1W 2D 3L
Rudes 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Rudes away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-4
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home only, Rudes away only.

Expected lineups

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 12 J. Posavec
  2. 20 K. Čabrajić
  3. 5 M. Čabraja
  4. 4 T. Triantafyllou
  5. 11 Lovre Kulušić
  6. 6 F. Fetai
  7. 8 I. Katić
  8. 10 M. Subotić
  9. 18 E. Atabaev
  10. 7 D. Vuković
  11. 24 M. Marić

Bench: J. Gurlica, M. Mitrović, M. Lorber, W. Sahli, M. Antunović, P. Smiljanic, M. Dardan, L. Ćurković, N. Đurković, J. Vasilj, L. Savatović

Rudes lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 95 L. Rogić
  2. 27 Felipe Curcio
  3. 5 M. Stolnik
  4. 42 M. Zebić
  5. 2 B. Unušić
  6. 37 N. Skoko
  7. 24 I. Đorić
  8. 11 J. Poldrugač
  9. 29 S. Bralić
  10. 10 V. Seitz
  11. 78 J. Fernándes

Bench: Filip Holjevac, V. Celjak, L. Ilečić, Luka Popovic, T. Kolega, Cherno Saho, Xavi, M. Šlogar, K. Lovrić, F. Taraba, S. El Haddad

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 6 · draws 3 · Rudes 1.

NK Lokomotiva ZagrebDrawsRudes
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-21Rudes4-1NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
2024-05-18Rudes3-3NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
2024-03-09NK Lokomotiva Zagreb3-0RudesHNL
2023-12-03Rudes0-0NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
2023-09-15NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1-0RudesHNL
2019-04-20Rudes1-2NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
2019-02-15NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0-0RudesHNL
2018-10-26Rudes0-4NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
2018-08-11NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1-0RudesHNL
2018-04-18Rudes1-2NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot NK Lokomotiva Zagreb to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Our pick: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb to win 18+ Bet Now