NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split preview
In the upcoming match between NK Osijek and HNK Hajduk Split, the 1X2 probabilities show HNK Hajduk Split at 56% to win, while NK Osijek stands at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.02 for NK Osijek and 1.86 for HNK Hajduk Split.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 55%, suggesting a potential for an exciting match. However, NK Osijek's recent form, with only 1 win in their last 5 games, could impact their performance negatively. In contrast, HNK Hajduk Split has won all of their last 5 matches, indicating strong momentum.
NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split: model vs market
| Source | NK Osijek | Draw | HNK Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Market | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| Published | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.89, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split odds movement
Median bookmaker price on HNK Hajduk Split, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Osijek | 3.83 | 3.81 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.58 | 3.52 | -0.05 |
| HNK Hajduk Split | 1.85 | 1.85 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
NK Osijek and HNK Hajduk Split expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.80
- Attack rating (NK Osijek / HNK Hajduk Split)
- 1.11 / 1.31
- Defence rating (NK Osijek / HNK Hajduk Split)
- 1.01 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NK Osijek goals. Columns: HNK Hajduk Split goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NK Osijek | 25% | 4.01 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | |
| HNK Hajduk Split | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NK Osijek or draw) | 51% | 1.95 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or HNK Hajduk Split) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Hajduk Split win by 2+ | 24% | 4.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
NK Osijek and HNK Hajduk Split recent form
NK Osijek
2W 2D 2L
HNK Hajduk Split
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NK Osijek at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
HNK Hajduk Split away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: NK Osijek at home only, HNK Hajduk Split away only.
NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: NK Osijek 1 · draws 0 · HNK Hajduk Split 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | HNK Hajduk Split | 4-0 | NK Osijek | HNL |
| 2026-04-21 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0-1 | NK Osijek | HNL |
| 2026-02-15 | NK Osijek | 0-2 | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
| 2025-11-08 | HNK Hajduk Split | 2-0 | NK Osijek | HNL |
| 2025-08-24 | NK Osijek | 0-2 | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes 2026-11-06
- HNK Gorica v NK Slaven Belupo — match page 2026-11-07
- Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- NK Osijek, previous: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Osijek: odds and pick
- HNK Hajduk Split, previous: Lincoln Red Imps FC v HNK Hajduk Split analysis
- HNK Hajduk Split, next: HNK Hajduk Split vs St. Truiden: odds and pick