Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka preview
In the fixture between Istra 1961 and HNK Rijeka, the 1X2 probabilities show HNK Rijeka at 43% and Istra 1961 at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 7% chance. Both teams to score stands at 60%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 58%.
Istra 1961's expected goals are 1.80, compared to HNK Rijeka's 1.22. Recent form shows Istra 1961 with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, while HNK Rijeka has 2 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw in the same period. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka: model vs market
| Source | Istra 1961 | Draw | HNK Rijeka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Market | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| Published | 32% | 26% | 43% |
| Edge | +6% | 0% | -6% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -16.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka odds movement
Median bookmaker price on HNK Rijeka, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Istra 1961 | 3.62 | 3.61 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.61 | 3.55 | -0.06 |
| HNK Rijeka | 1.90 | 1.89 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Istra 1961 and HNK Rijeka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.03
- Attack rating (Istra 1961 / HNK Rijeka)
- 1.09 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Istra 1961 / HNK Rijeka)
- 0.97 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Istra 1961 goals. Columns: HNK Rijeka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Istra 1961 | 32% | 3.17 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | |
| HNK Rijeka | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Istra 1961 or draw) | 57% | 1.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or HNK Rijeka) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Rijeka win by 2+ | 11% | 9.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Istra 1961 and HNK Rijeka recent form
Istra 1961
3W 1D 2L
HNK Rijeka
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Istra 1961 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HNK Rijeka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Istra 1961 at home only, HNK Rijeka away only.
Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Istra 1961 3 · draws 2 · HNK Rijeka 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | HNK Rijeka | 3-2 | Istra 1961 | HNL |
| 2026-05-17 | Istra 1961 | 0-0 | HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| 2026-03-15 | HNK Rijeka | 0-2 | Istra 1961 | HNL |
| 2026-01-20 | Istra 1961 | 1-2 | HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| 2025-09-27 | HNK Rijeka | 0-0 | Istra 1961 | HNL |
| 2025-04-19 | Istra 1961 | 2-0 | HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| 2025-04-02 | HNK Rijeka | 1-0 | Istra 1961 | Cup |
| 2025-02-09 | HNK Rijeka | 0-1 | Istra 1961 | HNL |
| 2024-11-03 | Istra 1961 | 0-1 | HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| 2024-08-18 | HNK Rijeka | 4-0 | Istra 1961 | HNL |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
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- HNK Gorica v NK Slaven Belupo — match page 2026-11-07
- NK Osijek v HNK Hajduk Split — match page 2026-11-08
- NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Istra 1961, previous: NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 prediction
- HNK Rijeka, previous: HNK Rijeka – NK Varazdin, 2026-11-01