HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin preview
HNK Rijeka faces NK Varazdin with a 39% chance of winning compared to Varazdin's 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 10% of the time in our model. HNK Rijeka has a slight edge in expected goals at 1.30, while NK Varazdin sits at 1.14.
However, recent form shows HNK Rijeka with a mixed record of W-L-W-D-W-D, while NK Varazdin has struggled with L-L-W-D-D-D. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 51%, indicating that a goal from Varazdin could alter the outcome. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the match's result.
HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin: model vs market
| Source | HNK Rijeka | Draw | NK Varazdin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
HNK Rijeka and NK Varazdin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.44
- Attack rating (HNK Rijeka / NK Varazdin)
- 1.10 / 0.91
- Defence rating (HNK Rijeka / NK Varazdin)
- 1.03 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: HNK Rijeka goals. Columns: NK Varazdin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Rijeka | 39% | 2.56 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.35 | |
| NK Varazdin | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (HNK Rijeka or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or NK Varazdin) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Rijeka win by 2+ | 18% | 5.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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HNK Rijeka and NK Varazdin recent form
HNK Rijeka
3W 2D 1L
NK Varazdin
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
HNK Rijeka at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NK Varazdin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: HNK Rijeka at home only, NK Varazdin away only.
HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: HNK Rijeka 1 · draws 0 · NK Varazdin 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | NK Varazdin | 2-0 | HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| 2026-04-22 | NK Varazdin | 1-0 | HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| 2026-02-14 | HNK Rijeka | 3-1 | NK Varazdin | HNL |
| 2025-11-09 | NK Varazdin | 1-0 | HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| 2025-08-24 | HNK Rijeka | 1-2 | NK Varazdin | HNL |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica 2026-10-31
- Rudes vs Dinamo Zagreb 2026-10-31
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v NK Osijek — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- HNK Rijeka, previous: Dinamo Zagreb – HNK Rijeka, 2026-10-27
- NK Varazdin, previous: NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo prediction