HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica preview
In the HNL match between HNK Hajduk Split and HNK Gorica, the 1X2 probabilities show HNK Hajduk Split at 68%, while HNK Gorica is at 9%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 17% chance. HNK Hajduk Split has been in strong recent form, winning 4 of their last 6 matches, while HNK Gorica has struggled, with only 1 win in their last 6 games.
The expected goals indicate HNK Hajduk Split at 1.83 and HNK Gorica at 0.52, suggesting a low-scoring game. The chances for Over 2.5 goals sit at 41%, and both teams to score is at 35%. If HNK Gorica can improve their attacking output, it could challenge the expected outcome.
HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica: model vs market
| Source | HNK Hajduk Split | Draw | HNK Gorica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 24% | 10% |
| Market | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Published | 69% | 20% | 11% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.57.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.36, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
HNK Hajduk Split and HNK Gorica expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.33
- Attack rating (HNK Hajduk Split / HNK Gorica)
- 1.28 / 0.62
- Defence rating (HNK Hajduk Split / HNK Gorica)
- 0.75 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: HNK Hajduk Split goals. Columns: HNK Gorica goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 69% | 1.44 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.04 | |
| HNK Gorica | 11% | 9.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.72 |
| No | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (HNK Hajduk Split or draw) | 89% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or HNK Gorica) | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Hajduk Split win by 2+ | 39% | 2.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
HNK Hajduk Split and HNK Gorica recent form
HNK Hajduk Split
4W 1D 1L
HNK Gorica
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
HNK Hajduk Split at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-0
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HNK Gorica away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: HNK Hajduk Split at home only, HNK Gorica away only.
HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: HNK Hajduk Split 4 · draws 0 · HNK Gorica 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | HNK Gorica | 1-2 | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
| 2026-04-12 | HNK Hajduk Split | 1-0 | HNK Gorica | HNL |
| 2026-01-31 | HNK Gorica | 1-0 | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
| 2025-10-24 | HNK Gorica | 1-3 | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
| 2025-08-10 | HNK Hajduk Split | 2-0 | HNK Gorica | HNL |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Rudes vs Dinamo Zagreb 2026-10-31
- HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v NK Osijek — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- HNK Hajduk Split, previous: Istra 1961 v HNK Hajduk Split analysis
- HNK Hajduk Split, next: Lincoln Red Imps FC v HNK Hajduk Split analysis
- HNK Gorica, previous: HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: odds and pick