NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo preview
In the fixture between NK Varazdin and NK Slaven Belupo, the 1X2 probabilities show NK Varazdin at 63%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 12%. NK Slaven Belupo has a lower probability at 14%, which suggests a strong advantage for the home side.
However, the match could take an unexpected turn if NK Slaven Belupo manages to score, as both teams to score stands at 50%. Additionally, the expected goals indicate NK Varazdin at 1.97 and NK Slaven Belupo at 0.83, suggesting a potential for fewer goals than anticipated. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo: model vs market
| Source | NK Varazdin | Draw | NK Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 21% | 12% |
| Market | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Published | 59% | 23% | 19% |
| Edge | +10% | -1% | -9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 0.80.
- The market prices NK Varazdin below the model: +10.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on NK Varazdin, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Varazdin | 1.65 | 1.65 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.03 | 4.03 | +0.00 |
| NK Slaven Belupo | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
NK Varazdin and NK Slaven Belupo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.88
- Attack rating (NK Varazdin / NK Slaven Belupo)
- 0.92 / 0.96
- Defence rating (NK Varazdin / NK Slaven Belupo)
- 0.69 / 1.47
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NK Varazdin goals. Columns: NK Slaven Belupo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NK Varazdin | 59% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.43 | |
| NK Slaven Belupo | 19% | 5.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NK Varazdin or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or NK Slaven Belupo) | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | NK Varazdin win by 2+ | 43% | 2.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
NK Varazdin and NK Slaven Belupo recent form
NK Varazdin
2W 3D 1L
NK Slaven Belupo
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NK Varazdin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.20
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NK Slaven Belupo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: NK Varazdin at home only, NK Slaven Belupo away only.
NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: NK Varazdin 3 · draws 0 · NK Slaven Belupo 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | NK Slaven Belupo | 1-4 | NK Varazdin | HNL |
| 2026-04-12 | NK Varazdin | 2-1 | NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
| 2026-01-31 | NK Slaven Belupo | 0-2 | NK Varazdin | HNL |
| 2025-10-25 | NK Varazdin | 1-3 | NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
| 2025-08-10 | NK Slaven Belupo | 3-1 | NK Varazdin | HNL |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- NK Osijek vs Rudes 2026-10-24
- Dinamo Zagreb v HNK Rijeka — match page 2026-10-24
- Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- NK Varazdin, previous: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin: odds and pick
- NK Slaven Belupo, previous: NK Slaven Belupo v Dinamo Zagreb analysis