FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav preview
In the Czech Liga fixture between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav, the 1X2 probabilities show FK Jablonec at 43%, Mlada Boleslav at 31%, with a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 6% of the time in our model. Mlada Boleslav has a higher expected goals figure at 1.71 compared to FK Jablonec's 1.04, suggesting they may create more scoring chances.
Both teams to score stands at 54%, while Over 2.5 goals is predicted at 52%. This indicates a potential for an open game. However, FK Jablonec's recent form includes two losses in their last five matches, which could impact their performance negatively.
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav: model vs market
| Source | FK Jablonec | Draw | Mlada Boleslav |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 26% | 52% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Published | 43% | 25% | 31% |
| Edge | -7% | 0% | +7% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -19.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FK Jablonec, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Jablonec | 1.85 | 1.86 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
| Mlada Boleslav | 3.85 | 3.78 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.75
- Attack rating (FK Jablonec / Mlada Boleslav)
- 0.85 / 1.11
- Defence rating (FK Jablonec / Mlada Boleslav)
- 1.22 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FK Jablonec goals. Columns: Mlada Boleslav goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Jablonec | 43% | 2.32 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Mlada Boleslav | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FK Jablonec or draw) | 69% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Mlada Boleslav) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Jablonec win by 2+ | 8% | 11.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav recent form
FK Jablonec
2W 1D 3L
Mlada Boleslav
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FK Jablonec at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Mlada Boleslav away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-3
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FK Jablonec at home only, Mlada Boleslav away only.
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: FK Jablonec 1 · draws 0 · Mlada Boleslav 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Mlada Boleslav | 3-0 | FK Jablonec | Czech Liga |
| 2025-09-28 | FK Jablonec | 2-0 | Mlada Boleslav | Czech Liga |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Zlin v Slovácko — match page 2026-11-07
- Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava 2026-11-07
- Teplice v Pardubice — match page 2026-11-08
- Slavia Praha vs Artis — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Plzen vs Sparta Praha 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- FK Jablonec, previous: Riga vs FK Jablonec prediction
- Mlada Boleslav, previous: Mlada Boleslav v Hradec Králové analysis