Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava preview
In the Czech Liga match between Zbrojovka Brno and Baník Ostrava, the 1X2 probabilities show Zbrojovka Brno at 40%, draw at 30%, and Baník Ostrava at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance according to our model.
Zbrojovka Brno has an expected goals figure of 1.33, while Baník Ostrava sits at 1.14. The model suggests a 51% chance for both teams to score and a 45% chance for Over 2.5 goals. Recent form indicates Zbrojovka Brno's last five matches include two wins, while Baník Ostrava has not won in their last six outings. This context could impact the outcome, making predictions uncertain.
Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava: model vs market
| Source | Zbrojovka Brno | Draw | Baník Ostrava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 27% | 23% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Published | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Zbrojovka Brno, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zbrojovka Brno | 2.11 | 1.98 | -0.13 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.48 | +0.00 |
| Baník Ostrava | 3.17 | 3.60 | +0.43 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Zbrojovka Brno and Baník Ostrava expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.62
- Attack rating (Zbrojovka Brno / Baník Ostrava)
- 0.93 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Zbrojovka Brno / Baník Ostrava)
- 1.15 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Zbrojovka Brno goals. Columns: Baník Ostrava goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zbrojovka Brno | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Baník Ostrava | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Zbrojovka Brno or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Baník Ostrava) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Zbrojovka Brno win by 2+ | 27% | 3.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Zbrojovka Brno and Baník Ostrava recent form
Zbrojovka Brno
2W 1D 3L
Baník Ostrava
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Zbrojovka Brno at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Baník Ostrava away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Zbrojovka Brno at home only, Baník Ostrava away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Zlin v Slovácko — match page 2026-11-07
- Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Teplice v Pardubice — match page 2026-11-08
- Slavia Praha vs Artis — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav 2026-11-08
- Plzen vs Sparta Praha 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Zbrojovka Brno, previous: Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno prediction
- Baník Ostrava, previous: Baník Ostrava – Plzen, 2026-11-01