Updated

Czech Liga · Matchday 14

Plzen vs Sparta Praha

· Doosan Arena, Plzen

Alin prediction Sparta Praha to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PlzenDrawSparta Praha
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.29.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
Plzen2.48 Draw3.57 Sparta Praha2.69

Price as of

Expected return at 2.69: +2.0% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 6 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Plzen vs Sparta Praha preview

In the Czech Liga fixture between Plzen and Sparta Praha, the probabilities show Plzen at 36% to win, while Sparta Praha is slightly ahead at 38%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. The expected goals are 1.29 for Plzen and 1.63 for Sparta Praha, indicating a competitive match.

Both teams to score stands at 59%, and there's a 56% chance of Over 2.5 goals. However, Plzen's recent form shows 3 wins and 3 losses, which could impact their performance. Sparta Praha's recent record includes 3 wins and 3 draws, suggesting they are more consistent. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.

Plzen vs Sparta Praha: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePlzenDrawSparta Praha
Model29%27%44%
Market38%26%36%
Published36%26%38%
Edge-2%0%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.29.
  • The market prices Sparta Praha below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.69, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Plzen vs Sparta Praha odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sparta Praha, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 2.61Now 2.60 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Plzen2.452.45+0.00
Draw3.553.53-0.02
Sparta Praha2.612.60-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Plzen and Sparta Praha expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.29Plzen
1.63Sparta Praha
Total expected goals
2.92
Attack rating (Plzen / Sparta Praha)
1.32 / 1.20
Defence rating (Plzen / Sparta Praha)
1.08 / 0.69

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Plzen vs Sparta Praha score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.5% 7.7% 7.2% 3.9% 2.3% 1 5.8% 12.5% 9.3% 5.0% 3.0% 2 4.5% 7.3% 6.0% 3.2% 1.9% 3 1.9% 3.1% 2.6% 1.4% 0.8% 4+ 0.8% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4%

Rows: Plzen goals. Columns: Sparta Praha goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Plzen vs Sparta Praha goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Plzen vs Sparta Praha

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Plzen36%2.80
Draw26%3.79
Sparta Praha38%2.64
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.79
Under 2.544%2.27
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.68
No41%2.46
Double chance1X (Plzen or draw)62%1.61
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Sparta Praha)64%1.56
Handicap -1Sparta Praha win by 2+24%4.23
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Plzen and Sparta Praha recent form

Plzen 3W 0D 3L
Sparta Praha 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Plzen at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-3
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.71
Goals against / match
1.71
Clean sheets
1 of 7
  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Sparta Praha away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-3
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.29
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
4 of 7
  • They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Plzen at home only, Sparta Praha away only.

Plzen vs Sparta Praha head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Plzen 0 · draws 2 · Sparta Praha 1.

PlzenDrawsSparta Praha
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-12Sparta Praha0-0PlzenCzech Liga
2026-02-22Plzen0-0Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
2025-09-20Sparta Praha2-1PlzenCzech Liga

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Sparta Praha to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Sparta Praha
Our pick: Sparta Praha to win 18+ Bet Now