Teplice vs Pardubice preview
In the Czech Liga fixture, Teplice faces Pardubice with a 49% probability for a Teplice win and a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 10%. Teplice has an expected goals figure of 1.60 compared to Pardubice's 1.06, indicating a stronger attacking performance. However, the recent form shows Teplice with 2 wins in their last 6 matches and Pardubice with 4 wins in their last 6, which could skew the outcome.
Both teams to score stands at 53%, suggesting a decent chance for goals from both sides. The head-to-head record shows Teplice has not won against Pardubice in their last 2 encounters, with 2 draws. This could affect Teplice's confidence, making the match outcome less predictable.
Teplice vs Pardubice: model vs market
| Source | Teplice | Draw | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Published | 41% | 28% | 32% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.06.
- The market prices Teplice below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Teplice vs Pardubice odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Teplice, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Teplice | 2.50 | 2.44 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.35 | -0.05 |
| Pardubice | 2.70 | 2.70 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Teplice and Pardubice expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Teplice / Pardubice)
- 1.09 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Teplice / Pardubice)
- 0.86 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Teplice vs Pardubice score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Teplice goals. Columns: Pardubice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Teplice vs Pardubice goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Teplice vs Pardubice
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Teplice | 41% | 2.46 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Pardubice | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Teplice or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Pardubice) | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Teplice win by 2+ | 26% | 3.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Teplice and Pardubice recent form
Teplice
2W 2D 2L
Pardubice
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Teplice at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-2
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pardubice away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-4
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Teplice at home only, Pardubice away only.
Teplice vs Pardubice head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Teplice 0 · draws 2 · Pardubice 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Pardubice | 1-1 | Teplice | Czech Liga |
| 2025-09-28 | Teplice | 0-0 | Pardubice | Czech Liga |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Zlin v Slovácko — match page 2026-11-07
- Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava 2026-11-07
- Slavia Praha vs Artis — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav 2026-11-08
- Plzen vs Sparta Praha 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Teplice, previous: Slovácko vs Teplice: odds and pick
- Pardubice, previous: Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec prediction