Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava II: model vs market
| Source | Dukla Praha | Draw | Baník Ostrava II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Published | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Edge | -10% | 0% | +10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update.
Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava II odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dukla Praha, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dukla Praha | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.54 | +0.00 |
| Baník Ostrava II | 3.80 | 3.80 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dukla Praha and Baník Ostrava II expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (Dukla Praha / Baník Ostrava II)
- 1.21 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Dukla Praha / Baník Ostrava II)
- 1.09 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava II score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dukla Praha goals. Columns: Baník Ostrava II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava II goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava II
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dukla Praha | 49% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Baník Ostrava II | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dukla Praha or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Baník Ostrava II) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dukla Praha win by 2+ | 22% | 4.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dukla Praha and Baník Ostrava II recent form
Dukla Praha
3W 1D 2L
Baník Ostrava II
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dukla Praha at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Baník Ostrava II away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 61% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dukla Praha at home only, Baník Ostrava II away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Slavia Praha II v Vlašim — match page 2026-10-09
- Táborsko vs Karviná 2026-10-09
- Vysočina Jihlava v Prostějov — match page 2026-10-09
- Ústí nad Labem vs Opava — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Arsenal Česká Lípa vs Viktoria Žižkov 2026-10-10
- Hanácká v Příbram — match page 2026-10-10
- Třinec vs Kladno — team news & stats 2026-10-10