Ústí nad Labem vs Opava preview
Ústí nad Labem faces Opava with a 51% chance of winning, making them the favorites in the 1X2 market. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 11% probability. However, the recent form of Opava, which includes one win in their last six matches, could challenge this outcome.
The data shows a 55% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 53% probability for both teams to score. Ústí nad Labem has expected goals of 1.96, while Opava sits at 0.93. This disparity in expected goals suggests that Ústí nad Labem could dominate the match, but Opava's recent performances indicate they might surprise.
Ústí nad Labem vs Opava: model vs market
| Source | Ústí nad Labem | Draw | Opava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 23% | 16% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Published | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Edge | +12% | -2% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ústí nad Labem below the model: +12.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ústí nad Labem vs Opava odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ústí nad Labem, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ústí nad Labem | 2.03 | 1.89 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.54 | +0.04 |
| Opava | 3.19 | 3.42 | +0.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ústí nad Labem and Opava expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Ústí nad Labem / Opava)
- 1.12 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Ústí nad Labem / Opava)
- 0.81 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ústí nad Labem vs Opava score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ústí nad Labem goals. Columns: Opava goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ústí nad Labem vs Opava goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ústí nad Labem vs Opava
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ústí nad Labem | 51% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Opava | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ústí nad Labem or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Opava) | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ústí nad Labem win by 2+ | 37% | 2.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Ústí nad Labem and Opava recent form
Ústí nad Labem
3W 2D 1L
Opava
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ústí nad Labem at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Opava away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ústí nad Labem at home only, Opava away only.
Ústí nad Labem vs Opava head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Ústí nad Labem 1 · draws 1 · Opava 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Ústí nad Labem | 2-1 | Opava | FNL |
| 2025-10-17 | Opava | 3-3 | Ústí nad Labem | FNL |
| 2022-05-11 | Opava | 2-0 | Ústí nad Labem | FNL |
| 2021-11-19 | Ústí nad Labem | 0-2 | Opava | FNL |
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