Águila vs Inter: model vs market
| Source | Águila | Draw | Inter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 31% | 42% |
| Market | 44% | 29% | 27% |
| Published | 40% | 30% | 31% |
| Edge | -16% | +1% | +15% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Águila vs Inter odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Águila, 3 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Águila | 2.05 | 2.06 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.08 | -0.22 |
| Inter | 3.30 | 3.35 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Águila and Inter expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.29
- Attack rating (Águila / Inter)
- 0.97 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Águila / Inter)
- 1.00 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Águila vs Inter score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Águila goals. Columns: Inter goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Águila vs Inter goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Águila vs Inter
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Águila | 40% | 2.53 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Inter | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.12 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Águila or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Inter) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Águila win by 2+ | 10% | 9.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Águila and Inter recent form
Águila
3W 2D 1L
Inter
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Águila at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
Inter away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Águila at home only, Inter away only.
Águila vs Inter head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Águila 2 · draws 1 · Inter 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Inter | 0-0 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2026-04-19 | Águila | 0-1 | Inter | Primera Division |
| 2026-02-22 | Inter | 0-1 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2025-11-05 | Águila | 3-0 | Inter | Primera Division |
| 2025-09-04 | Inter | 2-0 | Águila | Primera Division |
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