Primera Division · Apertura - 13

Inca Aruba vs Municipal Limeño

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Municipal Limeño to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Inca ArubaDrawMunicipal Limeño

Inca Aruba vs Municipal Limeño: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceInca ArubaDrawMunicipal Limeño
Model26%28%46%
Market———
Published26%28%46%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.05.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Inca Aruba and Municipal Limeño expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.05Inca Aruba
1.50Municipal Limeño
Total expected goals
2.55
Attack rating (Inca Aruba / Municipal Limeño)
0.78 / 1.04
Defence rating (Inca Aruba / Municipal Limeño)
1.13 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Inca Aruba vs Municipal Limeño score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.0% 10.5% 8.8% 4.4% 2.3% 1 7.0% 13.5% 9.2% 4.6% 2.4% 2 4.3% 6.5% 4.8% 2.4% 1.3% 3 1.5% 2.3% 1.7% 0.8% 0.4% 4+ 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Inca Aruba goals. Columns: Municipal Limeño goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Inca Aruba vs Municipal Limeño goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Inca Aruba vs Municipal Limeño

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Inca Aruba26%3.91
Draw28%3.52
Municipal Limeño46%2.17
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547%2.13
Under 2.553%1.88
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.93
No48%2.07
Double chance1X (Inca Aruba or draw)54%1.85
12 (either side)72%1.40
X2 (draw or Municipal Limeño)74%1.34
Handicap -1Municipal Limeño win by 2+24%4.20
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Inca Aruba and Municipal Limeño recent form

Inca Aruba 3W 2D 1L
Municipal Limeño 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Inca Aruba at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.83
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Municipal Limeño away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-3
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Inca Aruba at home only, Municipal Limeño away only.

Inca Aruba vs Municipal Limeño head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Inca Aruba 0 · draws 0 · Municipal Limeño 1.

Inca ArubaDrawsMunicipal Limeño
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-29Municipal Limeño2-0Inca ArubaPrimera Division

Other Apertura - 13 fixtures