Fuerte San Francisco vs Firpo: model vs market
| Source | Fuerte San Francisco | Draw | Firpo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10% | 25% | 64% |
| Market | 17% | 25% | 58% |
| Published | 15% | 25% | 60% |
| Edge | -7% | +1% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.52.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Firpo below the model: +5.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Firpo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Firpo, 4 snapshots since 2026-09-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fuerte San Francisco | 5.50 | 5.42 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.67 | -0.03 |
| Firpo | 1.55 | 1.56 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fuerte San Francisco and Firpo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.17
- Attack rating (Fuerte San Francisco / Firpo)
- 0.65 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Fuerte San Francisco / Firpo)
- 1.09 / 0.59
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Firpo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fuerte San Francisco goals. Columns: Firpo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Firpo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 34%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fuerte San Francisco vs Firpo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fuerte San Francisco | 15% | 6.58 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Firpo | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34% | 2.98 |
| No | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fuerte San Francisco or draw) | 40% | 2.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Firpo) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Firpo win by 2+ | 37% | 2.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Fuerte San Francisco and Firpo recent form
Fuerte San Francisco
0W 2D 4L
Firpo
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fuerte San Francisco at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
Firpo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fuerte San Francisco at home only, Firpo away only.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Firpo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Fuerte San Francisco 0 · draws 2 · Firpo 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Firpo | 4-0 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2026-04-05 | Fuerte San Francisco | 0-2 | Firpo | Primera Division |
| 2026-02-08 | Firpo | 1-0 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2025-10-19 | Fuerte San Francisco | 1-4 | Firpo | Primera Division |
| 2025-08-17 | Firpo | 3-0 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2025-05-11 | Firpo | 1-1 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2025-05-08 | Fuerte San Francisco | 0-0 | Firpo | Primera Division |
| 2025-04-13 | Fuerte San Francisco | 0-1 | Firpo | Primera Division |
| 2025-02-16 | Firpo | 1-0 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2024-11-03 | Fuerte San Francisco | 0-2 | Firpo | Primera Division |
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- Inca Aruba v Municipal Limeño — match page 2026-10-02