Primera Division · Apertura - 13

Alianza vs Platense

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Alianza to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AlianzaDrawPlatense

Alianza vs Platense: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAlianzaDrawPlatense
Model47%28%24%
Market53%26%21%
Published51%27%22%
Edge-5%+2%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.01.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Alianza vs Platense odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Alianza, 2 snapshots since 2026-09-30.

Opened 1.75Now 1.73 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Alianza1.751.73-0.02
Draw3.503.48-0.02
Platense4.204.26+0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Alianza and Platense expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.50Alianza
1.01Platense
Total expected goals
2.50
Attack rating (Alianza / Platense)
1.11 / 0.75
Defence rating (Alianza / Platense)
1.06 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Alianza vs Platense score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.4% 7.0% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4% 1 11.0% 13.6% 6.2% 2.1% 0.7% 2 9.1% 9.2% 4.6% 1.6% 0.5% 3 4.6% 4.6% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 2.4% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Alianza goals. Columns: Platense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Alianza vs Platense goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Alianza vs Platense

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Alianza51%1.95
Draw27%3.75
Platense22%4.53
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.19
Under 2.554%1.84
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.98
No49%2.02
Double chance1X (Alianza or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Platense)49%2.05
Handicap -1Alianza win by 2+24%4.10
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Alianza and Platense recent form

Alianza 2W 4D 0L
Platense 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Alianza at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-3-0
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

Platense away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Alianza at home only, Platense away only.

Alianza vs Platense head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Alianza 6 · draws 3 · Platense 1.

AlianzaDrawsPlatense
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-26Platense2-2AlianzaPrimera Division
2026-03-29Alianza3-3PlatensePrimera Division
2026-02-01Platense0-2AlianzaPrimera Division
2025-10-05Alianza2-1PlatensePrimera Division
2025-08-03Platense1-1AlianzaPrimera Division
2025-03-27Alianza1-0PlatensePrimera Division
2025-01-30Platense1-0AlianzaPrimera Division
2024-11-30Alianza2-0PlatensePrimera Division
2024-09-22Platense0-2AlianzaPrimera Division
2024-04-21Platense0-2AlianzaPrimera Division

Other Apertura - 13 fixtures