League One · Matchday 9

Leyton Orient vs Plymouth

· Matchroom Stadium, London

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Plymouth to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Leyton OrientDrawPlymouth

Leyton Orient vs Plymouth: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLeyton OrientDrawPlymouth
Model39%25%35%
Market27%25%48%
Published30%25%45%
Edge+13%0%-13%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Leyton Orient vs Plymouth odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Plymouth, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 2.00Now 1.95 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Leyton Orient3.303.50+0.20
Draw3.603.70+0.10
Plymouth2.001.95-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Leyton Orient and Plymouth expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.66Leyton Orient
1.57Plymouth
Total expected goals
3.23
Attack rating (Leyton Orient / Plymouth)
1.05 / 1.34
Defence rating (Leyton Orient / Plymouth)
1.00 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Leyton Orient vs Plymouth score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.0% 5.2% 4.9% 2.5% 1.4% 1 5.5% 11.3% 8.1% 4.2% 2.4% 2 5.5% 8.6% 6.7% 3.5% 2.0% 3 3.0% 4.7% 3.7% 1.9% 1.1% 4+ 1.8% 2.9% 2.2% 1.2% 0.7%

Rows: Leyton Orient goals. Columns: Plymouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Leyton Orient vs Plymouth goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Leyton Orient vs Plymouth

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Leyton Orient30%3.35
Draw25%3.95
Plymouth45%2.23
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.60
Under 2.537%2.68
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.53
No35%2.87
Double chance1X (Leyton Orient or draw)55%1.81
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Plymouth)70%1.43
Handicap -1Plymouth win by 2+18%5.65
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Leyton Orient and Plymouth recent form

Leyton Orient 2W 1D 3L
Plymouth 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Leyton Orient at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.

Plymouth away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Leyton Orient at home only, Plymouth away only.

Leyton Orient vs Plymouth head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Leyton Orient 3 · draws 0 · Plymouth 6.

Leyton OrientDrawsPlymouth
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-17Leyton Orient1-3PlymouthLeague One
2025-12-02Leyton Orient0-1PlymouthEFL Trophy
2025-08-19Plymouth0-1Leyton OrientLeague One
2023-08-08Plymouth2-0Leyton OrientLeague Cup
2020-09-15Leyton Orient3-2PlymouthLeague Cup
2019-10-22Plymouth4-0Leyton OrientLeague Two
2019-08-13Plymouth2-0Leyton OrientLeague Cup
2017-02-14Plymouth2-3Leyton OrientLeague Two
2016-09-27Leyton Orient0-2PlymouthLeague Two

Other Matchday 9 fixtures