League One · Matchday 9

Reading vs Bradford

· Madejski Stadium, Reading

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Reading to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ReadingDrawBradford

Reading vs Bradford: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceReadingDrawBradford
Model36%33%31%
Market45%28%28%
Published43%29%29%
Edge-8%+5%+3%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Reading vs Bradford odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Reading, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 2.29Now 2.10 -0.19
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Reading2.292.10-0.19
Draw3.223.38+0.16
Bradford3.153.38+0.23

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Reading and Bradford expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.10Reading
1.00Bradford
Total expected goals
2.10
Attack rating (Reading / Bradford)
1.27 / 0.88
Defence rating (Reading / Bradford)
0.96 / 0.59

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Reading vs Bradford score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.6% 10.8% 6.1% 2.0% 0.6% 1 12.1% 14.8% 6.7% 2.2% 0.7% 2 7.4% 7.4% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 3 2.7% 2.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Reading goals. Columns: Bradford goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Reading vs Bradford goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 63%
Over 2.5 35%
Over 3.5 16%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Reading vs Bradford

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Reading43%2.35
Draw29%3.46
Bradford29%3.51
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535%2.85
Under 2.565%1.54
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.30
No56%1.77
Double chance1X (Reading or draw)71%1.40
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Bradford)57%1.74
Handicap -1Reading win by 2+15%6.51
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Reading and Bradford recent form

Reading 3W 1D 2L
Bradford 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Reading at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
3.25
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Bradford away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Reading at home only, Bradford away only.

Reading vs Bradford head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Reading 2 · draws 1 · Bradford 1.

ReadingDrawsBradford
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-28Reading2-1BradfordLeague One
2025-12-13Bradford2-0ReadingLeague One
2015-03-16Reading3-0BradfordFA Cup
2015-03-07Bradford0-0ReadingFA Cup

Other Matchday 9 fixtures