Notts County vs Stockport County preview
In the League One match between Notts County and Stockport County, the 1X2 probabilities show Notts County at 22%, a draw at 29%, and Stockport County at 50%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% chance. Notts County has struggled recently, with a record of L-L-L-L-D-D, while Stockport County has performed better, winning 4 of their last 6 matches.
The expected goals indicate Notts County at 0.90 and Stockport County at 1.48. There is a 43% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance for both teams to score. If Notts County can improve their form or if Stockport County underperforms, the predictions could change.
Notts County vs Stockport County: model vs market
| Source | Notts County | Draw | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 30% | 46% |
| Market | 18% | 24% | 59% |
| Published | 19% | 25% | 55% |
| Edge | +6% | +6% | -12% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Notts County vs Stockport County odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Stockport County, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County | 5.20 | 5.22 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
| Stockport County | 1.60 | 1.58 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Notts County and Stockport County expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.27
- Attack rating (Notts County / Stockport County)
- 0.81 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Notts County / Stockport County)
- 0.89 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Notts County vs Stockport County score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Notts County goals. Columns: Stockport County goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Notts County vs Stockport County goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Notts County vs Stockport County
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Notts County | 19% | 5.20 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Stockport County | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.19 |
| No | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Notts County or draw) | 45% | 2.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Stockport County) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stockport County win by 2+ | 23% | 4.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Notts County and Stockport County recent form
Notts County
1W 1D 4L
Stockport County
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Notts County at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stockport County away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Notts County at home only, Stockport County away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Reading vs Barnsley — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient 2026-10-24
- AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe — match page 2026-10-24
- Oxford United vs Bradford — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Doncaster vs Sheffield Wednesday 2026-10-24
- Blackpool v Mansfield Town — match page 2026-10-24
- Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Cambridge United vs Plymouth 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Notts County, previous: Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday prediction
- Notts County, next: Altrincham vs Notts County prediction
- Stockport County, previous: Doncaster vs Stockport County: odds and pick
- Stockport County, next: Oxford United – Stockport County, 2026-10-27