Mansfield Town vs Notts County preview
Mansfield Town has a 55% chance of winning against Notts County, who have a 20% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% probability. Mansfield's expected goals stand at 1.79, while Notts County's is 0.99.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are each at 53%. However, Notts County's recent form shows they have lost 5 out of their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance. Mansfield Town has a more stable form with 3 wins in their last 5 games, but their confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Mansfield Town vs Notts County: model vs market
| Source | Mansfield Town | Draw | Notts County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Published | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Mansfield Town vs Notts County odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mansfield Town, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield Town | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.71 | 3.71 | +0.00 |
| Notts County | 4.22 | 4.22 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mansfield Town and Notts County expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.78
- Attack rating (Mansfield Town / Notts County)
- 1.37 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Mansfield Town / Notts County)
- 1.04 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mansfield Town vs Notts County score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mansfield Town goals. Columns: Notts County goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mansfield Town vs Notts County goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mansfield Town vs Notts County
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mansfield Town | 54% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Notts County | 21% | 4.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mansfield Town or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Notts County) | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mansfield Town win by 2+ | 32% | 3.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mansfield Town and Notts County recent form
Mansfield Town
3W 3D 0L
Notts County
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mansfield Town at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Notts County away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mansfield Town at home only, Notts County away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Bradford vs Huddersfield 2026-10-31
- Leicester vs Stevenage 2026-10-31
- Wigan v Bromley — match page 2026-10-31
- Barnsley vs Oxford United — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster 2026-10-31
- Peterborough v Luton — match page 2026-10-31
- Wycombe vs Burton Albion — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Stockport County v AFC Wimbledon — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Mansfield Town, previous: Blackpool v Mansfield Town analysis
- Mansfield Town, next: Mansfield Town v Macclesfield analysis
- Notts County, previous: Notts County – Stockport County, 2026-10-24
- Notts County, next: Altrincham vs Notts County prediction