AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe preview
AFC Wimbledon faces Wycombe with a 26% chance of winning compared to Wycombe's 48%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.29 for AFC Wimbledon and 1.81 for Wycombe. The model suggests a high possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 62%.
However, AFC Wimbledon has shown mixed recent form with L-L-D-D-W-W, while Wycombe comes in with stronger results of W-L-D-W-W-D. This discrepancy in form could influence the match outcome, making the predictions less certain. The confidence grade is C, indicating some caution in the forecast.
AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe: model vs market
| Source | AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 24% | 53% |
| Market | 25% | 26% | 50% |
| Published | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Wycombe below the model: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Wycombe, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon | 3.11 | 3.75 | +0.64 |
| Draw | 3.44 | 3.62 | +0.19 |
| Wycombe | 2.15 | 1.88 | -0.27 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AFC Wimbledon and Wycombe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.08
- Attack rating (AFC Wimbledon / Wycombe)
- 0.58 / 1.22
- Defence rating (AFC Wimbledon / Wycombe)
- 1.33 / 1.37
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AFC Wimbledon goals. Columns: Wycombe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Wimbledon | 24% | 4.14 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Wycombe | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AFC Wimbledon or draw) | 49% | 2.02 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Wycombe) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wycombe win by 2+ | 32% | 3.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AFC Wimbledon and Wycombe recent form
AFC Wimbledon
1W 2D 3L
Wycombe
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AFC Wimbledon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Wycombe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: AFC Wimbledon at home only, Wycombe away only.
AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: AFC Wimbledon 1 · draws 0 · Wycombe 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Wycombe | 2-0 | AFC Wimbledon | League One |
| 2025-09-27 | AFC Wimbledon | 2-1 | Wycombe | League One |
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Before and after this match
- AFC Wimbledon, previous: AFC Wimbledon – Mansfield Town, 2026-10-20
- AFC Wimbledon, next: Crewe – AFC Wimbledon, 2026-11-07
- Wycombe, previous: Cambridge United vs Wycombe: odds and pick
- Wycombe, next: Accrington ST vs Wycombe prediction