Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons preview
In the League One fixture between Stevenage and Milton Keynes Dons, the 1X2 probabilities show Stevenage at 50%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 11%. The expected goals for Stevenage are 1.89, while Milton Keynes Dons sit at 0.91.
Both teams to score is at 52%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 53%. However, the recent form indicates that while Stevenage has won three of their last six matches, Milton Keynes Dons have struggled, with only one win in their last six. This inconsistency could impact the outcome, making the predictions less reliable.
Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons: model vs market
| Source | Stevenage | Draw | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Market | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Published | 51% | 26% | 22% |
| Edge | +11% | -3% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Stevenage below the model: +10.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Stevenage, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage | 1.98 | 1.91 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.41 | +0.06 |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 3.70 | 3.88 | +0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Stevenage and Milton Keynes Dons expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.80
- Attack rating (Stevenage / Milton Keynes Dons)
- 1.00 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Stevenage / Milton Keynes Dons)
- 0.84 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stevenage goals. Columns: Milton Keynes Dons goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stevenage | 51% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.77 | |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 22% | 4.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stevenage or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Milton Keynes Dons) | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stevenage win by 2+ | 36% | 2.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Stevenage and Milton Keynes Dons recent form
Stevenage
4W 0D 2L
Milton Keynes Dons
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stevenage at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Milton Keynes Dons away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stevenage at home only, Milton Keynes Dons away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Reading vs Barnsley — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient 2026-10-24
- AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe — match page 2026-10-24
- Oxford United vs Bradford — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Doncaster vs Sheffield Wednesday 2026-10-24
- Blackpool v Mansfield Town — match page 2026-10-24
- Cambridge United vs Plymouth 2026-10-24
- Notts County v Stockport County — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Stevenage, previous: Stevenage v Plymouth analysis
- Stevenage, next: Oxford United v Stevenage analysis
- Milton Keynes Dons, previous: Blackpool vs Milton Keynes Dons prediction
- Milton Keynes Dons, next: Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town prediction