Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient preview
Burton Albion faces Leyton Orient with a 34% chance of winning compared to Leyton Orient's 37%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which is supported by expected goals of 1.29 for Burton Albion and 1.35 for Leyton Orient.
Both teams to score stands at 55%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, the recent form shows Burton Albion with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Leyton Orient has 2 wins in their last 6. This inconsistency could lead to a different outcome than predicted.
Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient: model vs market
| Source | Burton Albion | Draw | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 30% | 36% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Published | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Edge | -3% | +2% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Leyton Orient, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burton Albion | 2.57 | 2.57 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.33 | 3.30 | -0.03 |
| Leyton Orient | 2.57 | 2.57 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Burton Albion and Leyton Orient expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.40
- Attack rating (Burton Albion / Leyton Orient)
- 0.92 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Burton Albion / Leyton Orient)
- 1.08 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Burton Albion goals. Columns: Leyton Orient goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burton Albion | 35% | 2.83 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Leyton Orient | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| No | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Burton Albion or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Leyton Orient) | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Leyton Orient win by 2+ | 16% | 6.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Burton Albion and Leyton Orient recent form
Burton Albion
1W 3D 2L
Leyton Orient
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Burton Albion at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-1
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Leyton Orient away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Burton Albion at home only, Leyton Orient away only.
Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Burton Albion 0 · draws 1 · Leyton Orient 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Leyton Orient | 2-2 | Burton Albion | League One |
| 2025-11-29 | Burton Albion | 0-4 | Leyton Orient | League One |
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Before and after this match
- Burton Albion, previous: Burton Albion vs Bradford prediction
- Burton Albion, next: Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds: odds and pick
- Leyton Orient, previous: Reading v Leyton Orient analysis
- Leyton Orient, next: Leyton Orient v Harborough Town analysis