Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon preview
In the League One fixture between Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon, Stockport County has a strong 78% probability to win, while AFC Wimbledon sits at just 6%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Stockport's expected goals of 2.40 compared to AFC Wimbledon's 0.55.
However, the confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. While Over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams to score is at 39%, AFC Wimbledon could surprise with a better performance than anticipated, potentially affecting the expected outcome.
Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon: model vs market
| Source | Stockport County | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78% | 16% | 6% |
| Market | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| Published | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 0.55.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.28, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Stockport County, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport County | 1.26 | 1.25 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 5.60 | 5.65 | +0.05 |
| AFC Wimbledon | 9.30 | 9.28 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.95
- Attack rating (Stockport County / AFC Wimbledon)
- 1.26 / 0.60
- Defence rating (Stockport County / AFC Wimbledon)
- 0.78 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stockport County goals. Columns: AFC Wimbledon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stockport County | 75% | 1.34 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.13 | |
| AFC Wimbledon | 9% | 11.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.55 |
| No | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stockport County or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or AFC Wimbledon) | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stockport County win by 2+ | 56% | 1.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon recent form
Stockport County
4W 2D 0L
AFC Wimbledon
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stockport County at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
AFC Wimbledon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stockport County at home only, AFC Wimbledon away only.
Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Stockport County 2 · draws 0 · AFC Wimbledon 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | AFC Wimbledon | 0-2 | Stockport County | League One |
| 2026-03-28 | Stockport County | 3-0 | AFC Wimbledon | League One |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
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- Leicester vs Stevenage 2026-10-31
- Wigan v Bromley — match page 2026-10-31
- Barnsley vs Oxford United — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster 2026-10-31
- Peterborough v Luton — match page 2026-10-31
- Wycombe vs Burton Albion — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Mansfield Town vs Notts County 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Stockport County, previous: Oxford United – Stockport County, 2026-10-27
- Stockport County, next: Cray Wanderers – Stockport County, 2026-11-08
- AFC Wimbledon, previous: AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe: odds and pick
- AFC Wimbledon, next: Crewe – AFC Wimbledon, 2026-11-07