Stockport County vs Barnsley: model vs market
| Source | Stockport County | Draw | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| Market | 65% | 19% | 15% |
| Published | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.58 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Stockport County below the model: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Stockport County vs Barnsley odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Stockport County, 20 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport County | 1.40 | 1.42 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 4.75 | 4.80 | +0.05 |
| Barnsley | 6.70 | 6.05 | -0.65 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Stockport County and Barnsley expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.71
- Attack rating (Stockport County / Barnsley)
- 1.31 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Stockport County / Barnsley)
- 0.94 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stockport County vs Barnsley score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stockport County goals. Columns: Barnsley goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stockport County vs Barnsley goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stockport County vs Barnsley
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stockport County | 66% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.24 | |
| Barnsley | 15% | 6.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stockport County or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Barnsley) | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stockport County win by 2+ | 47% | 2.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Stockport County and Barnsley recent form
Stockport County
3W 1D 2L
Barnsley
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stockport County at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
Barnsley away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stockport County at home only, Barnsley away only.
Stockport County vs Barnsley head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Stockport County 1 · draws 1 · Barnsley 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Barnsley | 1-3 | Stockport County | League One |
| 2025-11-29 | Stockport County | 1-1 | Barnsley | League One |
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