Balagne vs Montpellier Prediction & Betting Tips 14/11/2026

Balagne vs Montpellier preview

In the Coupe de France match between Balagne and Montpellier, the 1X2 probabilities show Montpellier at 68%, while Balagne sits at just 10%. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 0-2, with a 14% probability. Montpellier's recent form is strong, with 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches.

While the model suggests a solid chance for Montpellier, factors like Balagne's home advantage or unexpected performances could influence the outcome. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is at 49%, and both teams to score stands at 42%. Balagne has an expected goals figure of 0.65, while Montpellier is at 2.00, indicating a significant attacking edge for the visitors.

Balagne vs Montpellier: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Balagne	Draw	Montpellier
Model	10%	21%	68%
Market	—	—	—
Published	10%	21%	68%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 0.65.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Balagne and Montpellier expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.65Balagne

2.00Montpellier

Total expected goals: 2.65
Attack rating (Balagne / Montpellier): 1.00 / 1.04
Defence rating (Balagne / Montpellier): 1.00 / 0.53

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Balagne vs Montpellier score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.0% 13.3% 14.2% 9.5% 7.5% 1 3.7% 10.1% 9.2% 6.1% 4.9% 2 1.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.6% 3 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 4+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Balagne goals. Columns: Montpellier goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Balagne vs Montpellier goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 75%

Over 2.5 49%

Over 3.5 27%

Both teams to score: 42%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Balagne vs Montpellier

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Balagne	10%	9.95
	Draw	21%	4.66
	Montpellier	68%	1.46
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	49%	2.02
	Under 2.5	51%	1.98
Both teams to score	Yes	42%	2.38
	No	58%	1.73
Double chance	1X (Balagne or draw)	32%	3.17
	12 (either side)	79%	1.27
	X2 (draw or Montpellier)	90%	1.11
Handicap -1	Montpellier win by 2+	44%	2.28
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer