Dijon vs Orleans preview
In the Coupe de France, Dijon faces Orleans with a 16% chance for Dijon to win and a 65% chance for Orleans. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Orleans' expected goals of 2.44 compared to Dijon's 1.17.
Dijon has shown some recent form with three wins in their last six matches, while Orleans has been more consistent, winning four of their last six. The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 64%. However, if Dijon can improve their attacking output, they might challenge Orleans more than expected.
Dijon vs Orleans: model vs market
| Source | Dijon | Draw | Orleans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 20% | 65% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 16% | 20% | 65% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 1.17.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Dijon and Orleans expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.61
- Attack rating (Dijon / Orleans)
- 1.21 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Dijon / Orleans)
- 1.07 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dijon vs Orleans score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dijon goals. Columns: Orleans goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dijon vs Orleans goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dijon vs Orleans
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dijon | 16% | 6.32 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.12 | |
| Orleans | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dijon or draw) | 35% | 2.83 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Orleans) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Orleans win by 2+ | 44% | 2.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dijon and Orleans recent form
Dijon
4W 0D 2L
Orleans
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Dijon, previous: Dijon vs RED Star FC 93: odds and pick