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Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF

Alin prediction La Roche VF to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 0 – 2

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
St-Philbert Gd LieuDrawLa Roche VF
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.89.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Bet on La Roche VF

St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF preview

In the Coupe de France fixture between St-Philbert Gd Lieu and La Roche VF, the 1X2 probabilities show La Roche VF at 60%, with St-Philbert Gd Lieu at 16% and a draw at 24%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-2, which occurs at 11%.

Both teams have a recent form of L-D-W, and the expected goals are 0.89 for St-Philbert Gd Lieu and 1.91 for La Roche VF. While there is a 53% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance for both teams to score, St-Philbert Gd Lieu's lower expected goals could lead to a different outcome than anticipated.

St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSt-Philbert Gd LieuDrawLa Roche VF
Model16%24%60%
Market———
Published16%24%60%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.89.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

St-Philbert Gd Lieu and La Roche VF expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.89St-Philbert Gd Lieu
1.91La Roche VF
Total expected goals
2.81
Attack rating (St-Philbert Gd Lieu / La Roche VF)
0.92 / 1.13
Defence rating (St-Philbert Gd Lieu / La Roche VF)
0.88 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.1% 10.5% 11.1% 7.1% 5.2% 1 4.4% 11.3% 9.9% 6.3% 4.7% 2 2.4% 4.6% 4.4% 2.8% 2.1% 3 0.7% 1.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.6% 4+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%

Rows: St-Philbert Gd Lieu goals. Columns: La Roche VF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2St-Philbert Gd Lieu16%6.29
Draw24%4.21
La Roche VF60%1.66
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.88
Under 2.547%2.14
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.95
No49%2.05
Double chance1X (St-Philbert Gd Lieu or draw)40%2.52
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or La Roche VF)84%1.19
Handicap -1La Roche VF win by 2+37%2.73
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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St-Philbert Gd Lieu and La Roche VF recent form

St-Philbert Gd Lieu 1W 1D 1L
La Roche VF 1W 1D 1L

Last 3 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Prediction snapshot La Roche VF to win Predicted score 0 – 2 C Bet on La Roche VF
Our pick: La Roche VF to win 18+ Bet Now