La Neuvillette vs Valenciennes preview
La Neuvillette faces Valenciennes with 18% chances of winning compared to Valenciennes' 60%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with a 10% probability. Valenciennes has shown good recent form with two wins and two draws, while La Neuvillette's recent performance is not available.
The model indicates a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 63%. However, if La Neuvillette can improve their attack or if Valenciennes underperforms, the expected goals of 1.20 for La Neuvillette and 2.26 for Valenciennes could shift the match dynamics significantly.
La Neuvillette vs Valenciennes: model vs market
| Source | La Neuvillette | Draw | Valenciennes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 21% | 60% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 18% | 21% | 60% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.20.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
La Neuvillette and Valenciennes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.46
- Attack rating (La Neuvillette / Valenciennes)
- 1.00 / 1.17
- Defence rating (La Neuvillette / Valenciennes)
- 1.00 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
La Neuvillette vs Valenciennes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: La Neuvillette goals. Columns: Valenciennes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
La Neuvillette vs Valenciennes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for La Neuvillette vs Valenciennes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | La Neuvillette | 18% | 5.45 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.71 | |
| Valenciennes | 60% | 1.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (La Neuvillette or draw) | 40% | 2.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Valenciennes) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Valenciennes win by 2+ | 39% | 2.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
La Neuvillette and Valenciennes recent form
Valenciennes
2W 2D 0L
Last 4 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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